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Cyclicality in Losses on Bank Loans

Author

Listed:
  • Bart Keijsers

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Bart Diris

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Erik Kole

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

Abstract

Based on unique data we show that macro variables, the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share common cyclical components. The innovation in our model is the distinction between loans with either severe or mild losses. The variation in the proportion of these two types drives the cyclic behavior of the loss given default, and constitutes the links with the default rate and macro variables. These links vary according to loan and borrower characteristics. During downturns, the proportion of defaults with severe losses increases, but the distribution of losses conditional on their being mild or severe does not change. Though loans are monitored more closely than bonds and are more senior, the cyclical variation in their losses resembles those for bonds, albeit around a lower average level. This variation leads to an increase in the capital reserves required for loan portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Bart Keijsers & Bart Diris & Erik Kole, 2015. "Cyclicality in Losses on Bank Loans," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-050/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Sep 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150050
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    File URL: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/15050.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loss-given-default; default rates; credit risk; capital requirements; dynamic factor models;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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