IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v36y2020i3p1003-1022.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting LGD distributions with mixed continuous and discrete ordinal outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Hwang, Ruey-Ching
  • Chu, Chih-Kang
  • Yu, Kaizhi

Abstract

The loss given default (LGD) distribution is known to have a complex structure. Consequently, the parametric approach for its prediction by fitting a density function may suffer a loss of predictive power. To overcome this potential drawback, we use the cumulative probability model (CPM) to predict the LGD distribution. The CPM applies a transformed variable to model the LGD distribution. This transformed variable has a semiparametric structure. It models the predictor effects parametrically. The functional form of the transformation is unspecified. Thus, CPM provides more flexibility and simplicity in modeling the LGD distribution. To implement CPM, we collect a sample of defaulted debts from Moody’s Default and Recovery Database. Given this sample, we use an expanding rolling window approach to investigate the out-of-time performance of CPM and its alternatives. Our results confirm that CPM is better than its alternatives, in the sense of yielding more accurate LGD distribution predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hwang, Ruey-Ching & Chu, Chih-Kang & Yu, Kaizhi, 2020. "Predicting LGD distributions with mixed continuous and discrete ordinal outcomes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1003-1022.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:3:p:1003-1022
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.10.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019302614
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.10.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanislav Mamonov & Raquel Benbunan-Fich, 2017. "What can we learn from past mistakes? Lessons from Data Mining the Fannie Mae Mortgage Portfolio," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 39(2), pages 235-262.
    2. Qi, Min & Zhao, Xinlei, 2011. "Comparison of modeling methods for Loss Given Default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2842-2855, November.
    3. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Fan Yu, 2008. "Default Risk And Diversification: Theory And Empirical Implications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 19, pages 455-480, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Raffaella Calabrese, 2014. "Predicting bank loan recovery rates with a mixed continuous‐discrete model," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 99-114, March.
    5. Calabrese, Raffaella & Zenga, Michele, 2010. "Bank loan recovery rates: Measuring and nonparametric density estimation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 903-911, May.
    6. Raydonal Ospina & Silvia Ferrari, 2010. "Inflated beta distributions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 111-126, January.
    7. Acharya, Viral V. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 787-821, September.
    8. João Bastos, 2014. "Ensemble Predictions of Recovery Rates," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 177-193, October.
    9. Loterman, Gert & Brown, Iain & Martens, David & Mues, Christophe & Baesens, Bart, 2012. "Benchmarking regression algorithms for loss given default modeling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 161-170.
    10. Hartmann-Wendels, Thomas & Miller, Patrick & Töws, Eugen, 2014. "Loss given default for leasing: Parametric and nonparametric estimations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 364-375.
    11. Unal, Haluk & Madan, Dilip & Guntay, Levent, 2003. "Pricing the risk of recovery in default with absolute priority rule violation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1001-1025, June.
    12. Sudheer Chava & Catalina Stefanescu & Stuart Turnbull, 2011. "Modeling the Loss Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1267-1287, July.
    13. Lando, David & Nielsen, Mads Stenbo, 2010. "Correlation in corporate defaults: Contagion or conditional independence?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 355-372, July.
    14. Jhao-Siang Siao & Ruey-Ching Hwang & Chih-Kang Chu, 2016. "Predicting recovery rates using logistic quantile regression with bounded outcomes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 777-792, May.
    15. Cheng, Ming-Yen & Zhang, Wenyang & Chen, Lu-Hung, 2009. "Statistical Estimation in Generalized Multiparameter Likelihood Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(487), pages 1179-1191.
    16. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
    17. Egon A. Kalotay & Edward I. Altman, 2017. "Intertemporal Forecasts of Defaulted Bond Recoveries and Portfolio Losses," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 433-463.
    18. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Huimin Chung & C. K. Chu, 2016. "A Two-Stage Probit Model for Predicting Recovery Rates," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 311-339, December.
    19. Altman, Edward I. & Kalotay, Egon A., 2014. "Ultimate recovery mixtures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 116-129.
    20. Sigrist, Fabio & Stahel, Werner A., 2011. "Using the Censored Gamma Distribution for Modeling Fractional Response Variables with an Application to Loss Given Default," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 673-710, November.
    21. Yashkir, Olga & Yashkir, Yuriy, 2013. "Loss Given Default Modelling: Comparative Analysis," MPRA Paper 46147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Chih-Kang Chu, 2018. "A logistic regression point of view toward loss given default distribution estimation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 419-435, March.
    23. Stefano Caselli & Stefano Gatti & Francesca Querci, 2008. "The Sensitivity of the Loss Given Default Rate to Systematic Risk: New Empirical Evidence on Bank Loans," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-34, August.
    24. Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2012. "Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-182.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kellner, Ralf & Nagl, Maximilian & Rösch, Daniel, 2022. "Opening the black box – Quantile neural networks for loss given default prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Chih-Kang Chu & Kaizhi Yu, 2021. "Predicting the Loss Given Default Distribution with the Zero-Inflated Censored Beta-Mixture Regression that Allows Probability Masses and Bimodality," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 143-172, June.
    2. Chih-Kang Chu & Ruey-Ching Hwang, 2019. "Predicting Loss Distributions for Small-Size Defaulted-Debt Portfolios Using a Convolution Technique that Allows Probability Masses to Occur at Boundary Points," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 95-117, August.
    3. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Huimin Chung & C. K. Chu, 2016. "A Two-Stage Probit Model for Predicting Recovery Rates," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 311-339, December.
    4. Kaposty, Florian & Kriebel, Johannes & Löderbusch, Matthias, 2020. "Predicting loss given default in leasing: A closer look at models and variable selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 248-266.
    5. Nazemi, Abdolreza & Fatemi Pour, Farnoosh & Heidenreich, Konstantin & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2017. "Fuzzy decision fusion approach for loss-given-default modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(2), pages 780-791.
    6. Nazemi, Abdolreza & Baumann, Friedrich & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2022. "Intertemporal defaulted bond recoveries prediction via machine learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 1162-1177.
    7. Kellner, Ralf & Nagl, Maximilian & Rösch, Daniel, 2022. "Opening the black box – Quantile neural networks for loss given default prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Nazemi, Abdolreza & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2024. "Interpretable machine learning for creditor recovery rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    9. Marc Gürtler & Marvin Zöllner, 2023. "Heterogeneities among credit risk parameter distributions: the modality defines the best estimation method," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(1), pages 251-287, March.
    10. Natalia Nehrebecka, 2019. "Bank loans recovery rate in commercial banks: A case study of non-financial corporations," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 139-172.
    11. Miller, Patrick & Töws, Eugen, 2018. "Loss given default adjusted workout processes for leases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 189-201.
    12. Salvatore D. Tomarchio & Antonio Punzo, 2019. "Modelling the loss given default distribution via a family of zero‐and‐one inflated mixture models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 182(4), pages 1247-1266, October.
    13. Hurlin, Christophe & Leymarie, Jérémy & Patin, Antoine, 2018. "Loss functions for Loss Given Default model comparison," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 348-360.
    14. Krüger, Steffen & Rösch, Daniel, 2017. "Downturn LGD modeling using quantile regression," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 42-56.
    15. Paolo Gambetti & Francesco Roccazzella & Frédéric Vrins, 2022. "Meta-Learning Approaches for Recovery Rate Prediction," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-29, June.
    16. Pascal François, 2019. "The Determinants of Market-Implied Recovery Rates," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, May.
    17. Cheng, Dan & Cirillo, Pasquale, 2018. "A reinforced urn process modeling of recovery rates and recovery times," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-17.
    18. Barbagli, Matteo & François, Pascal & Gauthier, Geneviève & Vrins, Frédéric, 2024. "The role of CDS spreads in explaining bond recovery rates," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2024002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    19. Jérémy Leymarie & Christophe Hurlin & Antoine Patin, 2018. "Loss Functions for LGD Models Comparison," Post-Print hal-01923050, HAL.
    20. Jobst, Rainer & Kellner, Ralf & Rösch, Daniel, 2020. "Bayesian loss given default estimation for European sovereign bonds," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1073-1091.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:3:p:1003-1022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.