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Least Impulse Response Estimator for Stress Test Exercises

Author

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  • Christian Gourieroux

    (University of Toronto and Toulouse School of Economics)

  • Yang Lu

    (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))

Abstract

We introduce new semi-parametric models for the analysis of rates and proportions, such as proportions of default, (expected) loss-given-default and credit conversion factor encountered in credit risk analysis. These models are especially convenient for the stress test exercises demanded in the current prudential regulation. We show that the Least Impulse Response Estimator, which minimizes the estimated effect of a stress, leads to consistent parameter estimates. The new models with their associated estimation method are compared with the other approaches currently proposed in the literature such as the beta and logistic regressions. The approach is illustrated by both simulation experiments and the case study of a retail P2P lending portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gourieroux & Yang Lu, 2019. "Least Impulse Response Estimator for Stress Test Exercises," CEPN Working Papers 2019-05, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    • Handle: RePEc:upn:wpaper:2019-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guo, Yanhong & Zhou, Wenjun & Luo, Chunyu & Liu, Chuanren & Xiong, Hui, 2016. "Instance-based credit risk assessment for investment decisions in P2P lending," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 417-426.
    2. Bruche, Max & González-Aguado, Carlos, 2010. "Recovery rates, default probabilities, and the credit cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 754-764, April.
    3. C. Gouriéroux & A. Monfort & J.‐M. Zakoïan, 2019. "Consistent Pseudo‐Maximum Likelihood Estimators and Groups of Transformations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 327-345, January.
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    5. Calabrese, Raffaella & Zenga, Michele, 2010. "Bank loan recovery rates: Measuring and nonparametric density estimation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 903-911, May.
    6. Gourieroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joann, 2017. "Noncausal vector autoregressive process: Representation, identification and semi-parametric estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 118-134.
    7. Ospina, Raydonal & Ferrari, Silvia L.P., 2012. "A general class of zero-or-one inflated beta regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1609-1623.
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    9. Renault, Olivier & Scaillet, Olivier, 2004. "On the way to recovery: A nonparametric bias free estimation of recovery rate densities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2915-2931, December.
    10. Sigrist, Fabio & Stahel, Werner A., 2011. "Using the Censored Gamma Distribution for Modeling Fractional Response Variables with an Application to Loss Given Default," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 673-710, November.
    11. Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2012. "Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-182.
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    Cited by:

    1. Serena Gallo, 2021. "Fintech platforms: Lax or careful borrowers’ screening?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basel Regulation; Stress Test; (Expected) Loss-Given-Default; Impulse Response; Credit Scoring; Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood; LIR Estimation; Beta Regression; Moebius Transformation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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