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Inside the black box: permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals


  • Anthony Garratt
  • Donald Robertson
  • Stephen Wright


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  • Anthony Garratt & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2004. "Inside the black box: permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 35, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc03:35

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-174, Summer.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    3. Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0004, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Evans, George & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "Information, forecasts, and measurement of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 233-254, April.
    5. Birchenhall, Chris R & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2001. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 179-195, May.
    6. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    7. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Real-Business-Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 71-89, March.
    8. Newbold, Paul, 1990. "Precise and efficient computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of economic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 453-457, December.
    9. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    10. Arino, Miguel A. & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Computation of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition for multivariate economic time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 37-42, October.
    11. Michael Massmann & James Mitchell, 2002. "Have UK and Eurozone Business Cycles Become More Correlated?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182(1), pages 58-71, October.
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    13. Robertson, Donald & Wright, Stephen, 1998. "The Good News and the Bad News about Long-run Stock Market Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9822, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cliff L.F. Attfield & Jonathan R.W. Temple, 2003. "Measuring trend output: how useful are the Great Ratios?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/555, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.

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