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The Good News and the Bad News about Long-run Stock Market Returns

If stock prices followed a random walk, uncertainty about future stock prices would be so great that the observed bias towards equities in long-term investment portfolios would be surprising. The good news is that if, as a growing body of research suggests, there is even a weak tendency for stationary valuation indicators to predict future stock prices, long-run returns can become markedly more predictable. This is illustrated in a cointegrating VAR, with Tobin?s q as one of the cointegrating relations. The bad news is a corollary of the good news: q and most other indicators point to massive at the end of 1997, and hence the prospect of weak stock prices well into the next century.

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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 9822.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9822
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

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  12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
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  17. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  18. Chiang, Raymond & Liu, Peter & Okunev, John, 1995. "Modelling mean reversion of asset prices towards their fundamental value," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1327-1340, November.
  19. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
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