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On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks

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  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Dreger, Christian
  • Dubova, Irina

Abstract

The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese transformation. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented a decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource‐rich economies. The Chinese shift to consumption‐driven growth led to a decline in commodity demand, and the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets. This view is supported by Bayesian VARs specified for the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of international variables on GDP growth. In contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Hence, the change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure on countries with abundant natural resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian & Dubova, Irina, 2017. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," GLO Discussion Paper Series 37, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:37
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    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2021. "The slowdown in trade: end of the “globalisation hype” and a return to normal?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 225-239, April.
    2. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 1/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    3. Bennani, Hamza, 2019. "Does People's Bank of China communication matter? Evidence from stock market reaction," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Dominik Kronen, 2019. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and hysteresis in EU exports to the global economy: The role of uncertainty," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 46(2), pages 335-355, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle divergence; Chinese transformation; Bayesian VARs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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