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On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks

Author

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  • Ansgar Belke
  • Christian Dreger
  • Irina Dubova

Abstract

The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly, their performance deteriorated in recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese economy. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented an abrupt decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource‐rich economies. Due to lower commodity demand, the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets in recent years. This view is supported by Bayesian structural VARs specified for the individual BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of the international economy on GDP growth. However, in contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Therefore, the Chinese economy exerts significant spillovers to the other countries under analysis. The change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure especially in countries with abundant natural resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Irina Dubova, 2019. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 122-142, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:42:y:2019:i:1:p:122-142
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12674
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    Cited by:

    1. Belke, Ansgar & Kronen, Dominik, 2017. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and hysteresis in EU exports to the global economy: The role of uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 695, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Olayinka Oyekola & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford, 2023. "Global Shocks in the US Economy: Effects on Output and the Real Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 411-435, April.
    3. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Bennani, Hamza, 2019. "Does People's Bank of China communication matter? Evidence from stock market reaction," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2021. "The slowdown in trade: end of the “globalisation hype” and a return to normal?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 225-239, April.
    6. Velásquez, Jorge Sepúlveda & Griñen, Pablo Tapia & Henríquez, Boris Pastén, 2022. "Emerging market dynamics in H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    7. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 1/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2019.
    8. Yildirim, Zekeriya & Guloglu, Hasan, 2024. "Macro-financial transmission of global oil shocks to BRIC countries — International financial (uncertainty) conditions matter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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