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Recovery Scenarios for Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Bergin, Adele
  • Conefrey, Thomas
  • FitzGerald, John
  • Kearney, Ide

Abstract

This paper examines recovery scenarios for the Irish economy. It estimates that the growth rate in potential output is 3% a year. This takes account of a permanent loss of output of 10% of GDP as a result of the recession. On this basis, and taking account of government fiscal action this year and in 2010, the government"s structural deficit is estimated to fall to between 3 and 4% of GDP by the end of 2010. The analysis suggests that when the world economy recovers the Irish economy will follow suit recovering some lost ground. Should the world recovery be delayed until 2012 this would inflict some further damage but the Irish economy would still see quite rapid growth in the postponed recovery phase.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS7.
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:resser:rs7
    Note: Publisher: ESRI
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean & Conefrey, Thomas, 2009. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2009," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20094.
    2. Barrett, Alan & FitzGerald, John & Nolan, Brian, 2002. "Earnings inequality, returns to education and immigration into Ireland," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 665-680, November.
    3. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean, 2009. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2009," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20093.
    4. Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2007. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Ireland under the EMU," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(1-Spring), pages 78-92.
    5. Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide, 2007. "Human capital accumulation in an open labour market: Ireland in the 1990s," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 839-858, November.
    6. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean, 2009. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2009," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20092.
    7. Joseph Durkan & Doireann Fitz Gerald & Colm Harmon, 1999. "Education and Growth in the Irish Economy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Frank Barry (ed.), Understanding Ireland’s Economic Growth, chapter 6, pages 119-135, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Iulia Siedschlag, 2008. "Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2008/3 edited by Morten Balling, May.
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