IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbops/200645.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Output growth differentials across the euro area countries: some stylised facts

Author

Listed:
  • Benalal, Nicholai
  • Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis
  • Pierluigi, Beatrice
  • Vidalis, Nick

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the extent to which the dispersion of real GDP growth rates has changed over the past few years and whether the synchronisation of business cycles has increased among the euro area countries. The study is divided into two main parts. The first focuses on the dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries, while the second studies the synchronisation of business cycles within the euro area. The study shows first that dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries in both unweighted and weighted terms has no apparent upward or downward trend during the period 1970-2004 as a whole. Second, since the beginning of the 1990s, the dispersion of real GDP growth rates across the euro area countries has largely reflected lasting trend growth differences, and less so cyclical differences, with some countries persistently exhibiting output growth either above or below the euro area average. Among other things, this might be due to different trends in demographics, as well as to differences in structural reforms undertaken in the past. Thirdly, the degree of synchronisation of business cycles across the euro area countries seems to have increased since the beginning of the 1990s. This finding holds for various measures of synchronisation applied to overall activity and to the cyclical component, for annual and quarterly data, as well as for various country groupings. In particular, the degree of correlation currently appears to be at a historical high. In addition to these main findings, certain other stylised facts on dispersion and synchronisation are presented. JEL Classification: C10, E32, O40

Suggested Citation

  • Benalal, Nicholai & Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis & Pierluigi, Beatrice & Vidalis, Nick, 2006. "Output growth differentials across the euro area countries: some stylised facts," Occasional Paper Series 45, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:200645
    Note: 427376
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp45.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Dorrucci, Ettore & Agur, Itai, 2005. "What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration?," Occasional Paper Series 40, European Central Bank.
    2. Maria Gabriella Briotti, 2005. "Economic reactions to public finance consolidation - a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    3. Frank Dierick & Fatima Pires & Martin Scheicher & Kai Gereon Spitzer, 2005. "The New Basel Capital Framework and its implementation in the European Union," Occasional Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    4. Mehl, Arnaud & Geis, André & Wredenborg, Stefan, 2004. "The international role of the euro: evidence from bonds issued by non-euro area residents," Occasional Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    5. Baele, Lieven & Ferrando, Annalisa & Hördahl, Peter & Krylova, Elizaveta & Monnet, Cyril, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    6. Wolswijk, Guido & de Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Government debt management in the euro area - recent theoretical developments and changes in practices," Occasional Paper Series 25, European Central Bank.
    7. Willman, Alpo & Whelan, Karl & Altissimo, Filippo & Georgiou, Evaggelia & Sastre, Teresa & Valderrama, Maria Teresa & Sterne, Gabriel & Stocker, Marc & Weth, Mark, 2005. "Wealth and asset price effects on economic activity," Occasional Paper Series 29, European Central Bank.
    8. Annenkov, Anatoli & Madaschi, Christophe, 2005. "Labour productivity in the Nordic EU countries: a comparative overview and explanatory factors 1980-2004," Occasional Paper Series 39, European Central Bank.
    9. Martin, Reiner & Roma, Moreno & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2005. "Regulatory reforms in selected EU network industries," Occasional Paper Series 28, European Central Bank.
    10. Leiner-Killinger, Nadine & Madaschi, Christophe & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie, 2005. "Trends and patterns in working time across euro area countries 1970-2004: causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 41, European Central Bank.
    11. Anderton, Robert & di Mauro, Filippo & Moneta, Fabio, 2004. "Understanding the impact of the external dimension on the euro area: trade, capital flows and other international macroeconomic linkages," Occasional Paper Series 12, European Central Bank.
    12. Véronique Genre & Daphne Momferatou & Gilles Mourre, 2005. "Wage diversity in the euro area - an overview of labour cost differentials across industries," Occasional Paper Series 24, European Central Bank.
    13. Henning Ahnert & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Quality adjustment of European price statistics and the role for hedonics," Occasional Paper Series 15, European Central Bank.
    14. Veronique Genre & Ramon Gomez Salvador, 2002. "Labour force developments in the euro area since the 1980s," Occasional Paper Series 04, European Central Bank.
    15. Russo, Daniela & Hart, Terry L. & Schönenberger, Andreas, 2002. "The evolution of clearing and central counterparty services for exchange-traded derivatives in the United States and Europe: a comparison," Occasional Paper Series 5, European Central Bank.
    16. Briotti, Maria Gabriella, 2005. "Economic reactions to public finance consolidation: a survey of the literature," Occasional Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    17. André Geis & Arnaud Mehl & Stefan Wredenborg, 2004. "The international role of the euro - evidence from bonds issued by non-euro area residents," Occasional Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    18. Genre, Véronique & Momferatou, Daphne & Mourre, Gilles, 2005. "Wage diversity in the euro area - an overview of labour cost differentials across industries," Occasional Paper Series 24, European Central Bank.
    19. Javier Santillán & Marc Bayle & Christian Thygesen, 2000. "The impact of the euro on money and bond markets," Occasional Paper Series 1, European Central Bank.
    20. Thimann, Christian & Buldorini, Luca & Makrydakis, Stelios, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 2, European Central Bank.
    21. Schönenberger, Andreas & Schmiedel, Heiko, 2005. "Integration of securities market infrastructure in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 33, European Central Bank.
    22. Vesala, Jukka & Cabral, Inês & Dierick, Frank, 2002. "Banking integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 6, European Central Bank.
    23. Louis Bê Duc & Gabe de Bondt & Alessandro Calza & David Marqués Ibáñez & Adrian van Rixtel & Silvia Scopel, 2005. "Financing conditions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 37, European Central Bank.
    24. Robert Anderton & Filippo di Mauro & Fabio Moneta, 2004. "Understanding the impact of the external dimension on the euro area - trade, capital flows and other international macroeconomic linkages," Occasional Paper Series 12, European Central Bank.
    25. Anatoli Annenkov & Christophe Madaschi, 2005. "Labour productivity in the Nordic EU countries - a comparative overview and explanatory factors – 1998-2004," Occasional Paper Series 39, European Central Bank.
    26. Heiko Schmiedel & Andreas Schönenberger, 2005. "Integration of securities market infrastructures in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 33, European Central Bank.
    27. Russo, Daniela & Hart, Terry L. & Malaguti, Maria Chiara & Papathanassiou, Chryssa, 2004. "Governance of securities clearing and settlement systems," Occasional Paper Series 21, European Central Bank.
    28. Jesper Berg & Annalisa Ferrando & Gabe de Bondt & Silvia Scopel, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
    29. Henrik Enderlein & Johannes Lindner & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Raymond Ritter, 2005. "The EU budget – how much scope for institutional reform?," Public Economics 0509005, EconWPA.
    30. Gonzalez, F. & Haas, F. & Johannes, R. & Persson, M. & Toledo, L. & Violi, R. & Zins, C. & Wieland, M., 2004. "Market dynamics associated with credit ratings: a literature review," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 4, pages 53-76, June.
    31. Winkler, Adalbert & Mazzaferro, Francesco & Nerlich, Carolin & Thimann, Christian, 2004. "Official dollarisation/euroisation: motives, features and policy implications of current cases," Occasional Paper Series 11, European Central Bank.
    32. Daniela Russo & Terry L. Hart & Chryssa Papathanassiou, 2004. "Governance of securities clearing and settlement systems," Occasional Paper Series 21, European Central Bank.
    33. Santillán, Javier & Bayle, Marc & Thygesen, Christian, 2000. "The impact of the euro on money and bond markets," Occasional Paper Series 1, European Central Bank.
    34. Dierick, Frank & Pires, Fatima & Scheicher, Martin & Spitzer, Kai Gereon, 2005. "The New Basel Capital Framework and its implementation in the European Union," Occasional Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    35. Gonzalez, F. & Haas, F. & Johannes, R. & Persson, M. & Toledo, L. & Violi, R. & Zins, C. & Wieland, M., 2004. "Market dynamics associated with credit ratings: a literature review," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 4, pages 53-76, June.
    36. Brand, Claus & Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 3, European Central Bank.
    37. Reiner Martin & Moreno Roma & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2005. "Regulatory reforms in selected EU network industries," Occasional Paper Series 28, European Central Bank.
    38. Musso, Alberto & Westermann, Thomas, 2005. "Assessing potential output growth in the euro area - a growth accounting perspective, January 2005," Occasional Paper Series 22, European Central Bank.
    39. Tomas Garbaravicius & Frank Dierick, 2005. "Hedge funds and their implications for financial stability," Occasional Paper Series 34, European Central Bank.
    40. de Bondt, Gabe & Ferrando, Annalisa & Berg, Jesper & Van Rixtel, Adrian & Scopel, Silvia, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
    41. Inês Cabral & Frank Dierick & Jukka Vesala, 2002. "Banking integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 06, European Central Bank.
    42. Kenny, Geoff & Ahnert, Henning, 2004. "Quality adjustment of European price statistics and the role for hedonics," Occasional Paper Series 15, European Central Bank.
    43. Claus Brand & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 03, European Central Bank.
    44. Adalbert Winkler & Francesco Mazzaferro & Carolin Nerlich & Christian Thimann, 2004. "Official dollarisation/euroisation - motives, features and policy implications of current cases," Occasional Paper Series 11, European Central Bank.
    45. Frank Dierick, 2004. "The supervision of mixed financial services groups in Europe," Occasional Paper Series 20, European Central Bank.
    46. Angela Maddaloni & Darren Pain, 2004. "Corporate ‘excesses’ and financial market dynamics," Occasional Paper Series 17, European Central Bank.
    47. Petschnigg, Reinhard, 2005. "The institutional framework for financial market policy in the USA seen from an EU perspective," Occasional Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    48. Francesco Mazzaferro & Arnaud Mehl & Michael Sturm & Christian Thimann & Adalbert Winkler, 2002. "Economic relations with regions neighbouring the euro area in the ‘euro time zone," Occasional Paper Series 07, European Central Bank.
    49. Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2005. "Assessing potential output growth in the euro area - a growth accounting perspective," Occasional Paper Series 22, European Central Bank.
    50. Daniela Russo & Terry L. Hart & Andreas Schönenberger, 2002. "The evolution of clearing and central counterparty services for exchange-traded derivatives in the United States and Europe - a comparison," Occasional Paper Series 05, European Central Bank.
    51. Genre, Véronique & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón, 2002. "Labour force developments in the euro area since the 1980s," Occasional Paper Series 4, European Central Bank.
    52. Reinhard Petschnigg, 2005. "The institutional framework for financial market policy in the USA seen from an EU perspective," Occasional Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    53. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    54. Angeloni, Ignazio & Flad, Michael & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of New Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank.
    55. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank.
    56. Dierick, Frank, 2004. "The supervision of mixed financial services groups in Europe," Occasional Paper Series 20, European Central Bank.
    57. Garbaravicius, Tomas & Dierick, Frank, 2005. "Hedge funds and their implications for financial stability," Occasional Paper Series 34, European Central Bank.
    58. Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Ettore Dorrucci & Itai Agur, 2005. "What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration?," Occasional Paper Series 40, European Central Bank.
    59. Calza, Alessandro & de Bondt, Gabe & Van Rixtel, Adrian & Scopel, Silvia & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Be Duc, Louis, 2005. "Financing conditions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 37, European Central Bank.
    60. Henrik Enderlein & Johannes Lindner & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Raymond Ritter, 2005. "The EU budget – how much scope for institutional reform?," Public Economics 0509005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    61. Luca Buldorini & Stelios Makrydakis & Christian Thimann, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 02, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dispersion of GDP growth across the euro area countries; synchronisation of business cycles within the euro area; trend and cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:200645. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.