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Reviewing adjustment dynamics in EMU: from overheating to overcooling

  • Servaas Deroose
  • Sven Langedijk
  • Werner Roeger

This paper analyses how adjustment dynamics, in an environment with some degree of price and wage rigidity, may create and strengthen asymmetric developments in a monetary union. It presents a simple illustrative model of adjustment dynamics that reproduces quite nicely actual developments in the first years of EMU. The model is used to analyse adjustments to two types of shocksrelative competitiveness shifts and demand disturbances. It is shown that the interaction between real exchange rate adjustment and real interest rate developments may contribute to periods of overheating and overcooling during which output might be for a number of years either above or below potential.Furthermore, the paper looks at the circumstances in which smooth adjustment to shocks can be expected and, on the other hand, when a cycle with greater amplitude is more likely. Finally, the paper examines policy options that could improve the functioning of EMU. The analysis provides another strong argument for pressing ahead with reforms that increase flexibility in labour and product markets and further integrate the economies of the euro area.

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Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 198.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0198
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Giovanni Peri, 1999. "Regional Nonadjustment and Fiscal Policy: Lessons for EMU," NBER Working Papers 6431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Roel Beetsma & Xavier Debrun & Franc Klaassen, 2001. "Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2001, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  3. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. ""New" views on the optimum currency area theory: what is EMU telling us?," Working Paper Series 0138, European Central Bank.
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  9. Patrick Honohan & Brendan Walsh, 2002. "Catching Up with the Leaders: The Irish Hare," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 1-78.
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  11. Hans-Werner Sinn & Michael Reutter, 2001. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," NBER Working Papers 8085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union," Economics Working Papers 90-132, University of California at Berkeley.
  13. Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J, 1993. "Integration, Specialization and Adjustment," CEPR Discussion Papers 886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Steinar Holden, 2004. "The Costs of Price Stability: Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Europe," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 183-208, 05.
  15. Jan Hansen & Werner Roeger, 2000. "Estimation of real equilibrium exchange rates," European Economy - Economic Papers 144, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  16. Christopher Allsopp & Michael J. Artis, 2003. "The Assessment: EMU, Four Years On," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-29.
  17. Peter Hoeller & Claude Giorno & Christine de la Maisonneuve, 2002. "Overheating in Small Euro Area Economies: Should Fiscal Policy React?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 323, OECD Publishing.
  18. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  19. John FitzGerald & David Duffy & Diarmaid Smyth, 2000. "Managing an Economy Under EMU: The Case of Ireland," Papers WP127, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  20. Fritz Breuss & Andrea Weber, 1999. "Economic Policy Coordination in the EMU: Implications for the Stability Pact," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 26, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  21. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
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