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Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China

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  • He, Qing
  • Leung, Pak-Ho
  • Chong, Terence Tai-Leung

Abstract

We investigate the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China over the past decades with emphasis on the post-Asian crisis period. A factor-augmented VAR method is used to study the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments in stabilizing the Chinese economy. We find that repo rate, benchmark lending rate, and a market-based monetary stance have little impact on the Chinese economy, and are only mildly effective when the exchange rate is more market-determined. The non-market-based measures of People's Bank of China, such as growth rates of total loan and money supply, are effective in adjusting the real economy and price level. Given the slow pace of exchange rate reform, China is likely to continue employing non-market-based policies in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:88-104 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2013.03.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Deng, Kaihua & Todd, Walker, 2016. "Is the US quantitative easing more effective than China's? A second thought," China Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 11-23.
    2. He, Qing & Liu, Fangge & Qian, Zhongxin & Chong, Terence Tai Leung, 2016. "Housing Prices and Business Cycle in China: A DSGE Analysis," MPRA Paper 75921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Nuutilainen, Riikka & Weill, Laurent, 2016. "Reserve requirements and the bank lending channel in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 37-50.
    4. Jesse Rothstein & Robert G. Valletta, 2017. "Scraping by: Income and Program Participation After the Loss of Extended Unemployment Benefits," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 880-908, September.
    5. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 195-212.
    6. Qing, He & Korhonen, Iikka & Zongxin, Qian, 2017. "Monetary policy transmission with two exchange rates and a single currency : The Chinese experience," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. Anna Krupkina & Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "Estimating Sustainable Output Growth in Emerging Market Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, pages 168-182.
    8. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2014. "Has China’s economy become more “standard”?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 83-103.
    10. He, Qing & Chen, Haiqiang, 2014. "Recent macroeconomic stability in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 505-519.
    11. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 83-103.
    12. Tan, Ying & Sha, Wenbiao & Paudel, Krishna, 2017. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Agricultural Price Index in China: A FAVAR Approach," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252676, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    13. Rongrong Sun, 2015. "What Measures Chinese Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 072015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    14. Ho, Steven Wei & Zhang, Ji & Zhou, Hao, 2014. "Hot money and quantitative easing: the spillover effect of U.S. monetary policy on Chinese housing, equity and loan markets," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 211, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, pages 461-480.
    16. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Li, Nasha & Zou, Lin, 2016. "A New Approach to Modelling Sector Stock Returns in China," MPRA Paper 80554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2015. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    18. Christian Dreger & Jarko Fidrmuc & Konstantin Kholodilin & Dirk Ulbricht, 2015. "The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1488, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Sun, Rongrong, 2015. "What measures Chinese monetary policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 263-286.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Factor model; Principal components; VAR; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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