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Recent macroeconomic stability in China

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  • He, Qing
  • Chen, Haiqiang

Abstract

The volatility of Chinese GDP growth has been markedly lower since the mid-1990s. We utilize frequency domain and vector autoregression (VAR) methods to investigate the origin of the observed volatility reduction in the Chinese economy. Our estimation indicates that lower volatility of random shocks to the economy, or the good luck hypothesis, accounts for most of the decline in macroeconomic volatility. Although good policy and better business practices are also contributing factors, they play a marginal role in dampening China's economic fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Qing & Chen, Haiqiang, 2014. "Recent macroeconomic stability in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 505-519.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:30:y:2014:i:c:p:505-519
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2013.07.005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great moderation; Output volatility; China;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General

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