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Time-varying volatility in the Chinese economy: A regional perspective

Listed author(s):
  • Qing He
  • Jack W. Hou
  • Boqun Wang
  • Ning Zhang

type="main" xml:lang="es"> Este artículo documenta cambios importantes en el entorno macroeconómico de China de las últimas tres décadas. La volatilidad de las actividades económicas agregadas chinas se ha reducido drásticamente en casi un 60 por ciento durante el período de la reforma; un fenómeno que coincide con la “Gran Moderación” que tuvo lugar en las economías más industrializadas. Empleamos un método de datos de panel provinciales para investigar las fuerzas motrices de la cada vez mayor estabilidad macroeconómica en China. Examinamos la relación empírica entre la volatilidad de la producción y diversos factores políticos, económicos, institucionales y demográficos. Nuestros resultados sugieren que la aceleración de la reforma hacia la economía de mercado, que comenzó alrededor de 1994, conduce por lo general a una reducción generalizada de la volatilidad de la producción en todas las provincias chinas. Tanto la reforma de las empresas de propiedad estatal como la acumulación de capital humano son determinantes importantes de la volatilidad de la producción desde mediados de la década de 1990 y desempeñan un papel importante a la hora de explicar las diferencias provinciales en la reducción de la volatilidad.

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Papers in Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 93 (2014)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 249-268

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Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:93:y:2014:i:2:p:249-268
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