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Consumption risk sharing and self-insurance across provinces in China: 1952–2008

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  • Chan, Kenneth S.
  • Lai, Jennifer T.
  • Yan, Isabel K.M.

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which idiosyncratic shocks to the permanent income of various provinces in China were mitigated through the channel of provincial risk-sharing during 1952–2008. Taking into account the possibility of self-insurance through saving, we find that provinces in China shared roughly 38% of their idiosyncratic output shocks during the entire sample period. In particular, we show that conventional risk-sharing analysis in the extant literature that does not take into account the self-insurance channel tends to over-estimate the degree of risk sharing by implying a degree of risk sharing of around 54%. Moreover, in view of the major economic reforms that had taken place in the last few decades, we decompose the sample period into two sub-phases: the pre-reform period (1952–1978), the reform period (1978–2008). We find that there is a notable increase in the degree of provincial risk sharing in the reform period. The degree of provincial risk sharing across China is comparable to that across the OECD countries, but falls short of that among the states in the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Chan, Kenneth S. & Lai, Jennifer T. & Yan, Isabel K.M., 2014. "Consumption risk sharing and self-insurance across provinces in China: 1952–2008," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 66-85.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:30:y:2014:i:c:p:66-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2014.05.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Te Lai, 2015. "Regional Capital Mobility in China: An Endogenous Parameter Approach," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 63-75, August.
    2. Chan, Kenneth S. & Dang, Vinh Q.T. & Li, Tingting & So, Jacky Y.C., 2016. "Under-consumption, trade surplus, and income inequality in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 241-256.
    3. Tao Cai & Vinh Q. T. Dang & Jennifer T. Lai, 2016. "China's Capital and ‘Hot’ Money Flows: An Empirical Investigation," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 276-294, August.
    4. Ho, Chun-Yu & Ho, Wai-Yip Alex & Li, Dan, 2015. "Intranational risk sharing and its determinants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 89-113.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption risk sharing; Consumption insurance; Precautionary savings; Permanent income; China;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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