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Forecasting the Demand for Energy in China

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  • Hing Lin Chan
  • Shu Kam Lee

Abstract

In this paper we use a cointegration and vector error-correction model to analyze the energy consumption behavior of China. In formulating a model suitable to China, it is found that not only conventional variables such as energy price and income are important, but the share of heavy industry output in the, national income is also a significant factor. With the help of a vector errorcorrection model, we predict that China will need approximately 1.42 billion tons of standard coal equivalent by the end of this century, representing a 44 percent increase compared with 1990.

Suggested Citation

  • Hing Lin Chan & Shu Kam Lee, 1996. "Forecasting the Demand for Energy in China," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 19-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1996v17-01-a02
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John & Kim, Bonggeun, 2008. "China's energy economy: Technical change, factor demand and interfactor/interfuel substitution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2167-2183, September.
    2. Martin-Rodriguez, Gloria & Caceres-Hernandez, Jose Juan, 2005. "Modelling the hourly Spanish electricity demand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 551-569, May.
    3. Crompton, Paul & Wu, Yanrui, 2005. "Energy consumption in China: past trends and future directions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 195-208, January.
    4. Azlina Abd. Aziz & Nik Hashim Nik Mustapha & Roslina Ismail, 2013. "Factors Affecting Energy Demand in Developing Countries: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(Special), pages 1-6.
    5. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John, 2010. "China's energy economy: A survey of the literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 105-132, June.
    6. Ang, James B., 2009. "CO2 emissions, research and technology transfer in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2658-2665, August.
    7. François Lescaroux & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "Measuring The Effects Of Oil Prices On China'S Economy: A Factor‐Augmented Vector Autoregressive Approach," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 410-425, August.
    8. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2008. "An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 775-786, February.
    9. Laurențiu-Stelian Mihai & Laura Vasilescu & Cătălina Sitnikov & Anca Băndoi & Leonardo-Geo Mănescu & Lucian Mandache, 2024. "A Study Regarding the Relationship between Carbon Emissions, Energy Consumption, and Economic Development in the Context of the Energy Growth Nexus," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-38, September.
    10. Francis, Brian M. & Moseley, Leo & Iyare, Sunday Osaretin, 2007. "Energy consumption and projected growth in selected Caribbean countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1224-1232, November.
    11. Yanli Ji & Jie Xue & Zitian Fu, 2022. "Sustainable Development of Economic Growth, Energy-Intensive Industries and Energy Consumption: Empirical Evidence from China’s Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    12. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John, 2009. "Gradual reforms and the emergence of energy market in China: Evidence from tests for convergence of energy prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4834-4850, November.
    13. Yousaf Raza, Muhammad & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Oil for Pakistan: What are the main factors affecting the oil import?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    14. von Hirschhausen, Christian & Andres, Michael, 2000. "Long-term electricity demand in China -- From quantitative to qualitative growth?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 231-241, April.
    15. Zhao, Xingjun & Wu, Yanrui, 2007. "Determinants of China's energy imports: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4235-4246, August.
    16. Jin Zhang and David C. Broadstock, 2016. "The Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth for China in a Time-varying Framework," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(China Spe).
    17. Krishna Murthy Inumula & K. Deeppa, 2017. "Cointegration between Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and GDP in India," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, June.
    18. Akkemik, K. Ali & Göksal, Koray & Li, Jia, 2012. "Energy consumption and income in Chinese provinces: Heterogeneous panel causality analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 445-454.
    19. Azlina, A.A. & Law, Siong Hook & Nik Mustapha, Nik Hashim, 2014. "Dynamic linkages among transport energy consumption, income and CO2 emission in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 598-606.
    20. Kim, Hyun Seok & Baek, Jungho, 2013. "Assessing dynamics of crude oil import demand in Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 260-263.
    21. Zou, Gaolu & Chau, K.W., 2006. "Short- and long-run effects between oil consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3644-3655, December.
    22. Islam, Md. Monirul & Irfan, Muhammad & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in Bangladesh: The relative influencing profiles of economic factors, urbanization, physical infrastructure and institutional quality," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1130-1149.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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