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Determinants of US Financial fragility conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio C. Bagliano
  • Claudio Morana

Abstract

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the fragility of the US financial system under several respects. In this paper, the properties of a summary index of financial fragility, timely capturing changes in credit and liquidity risk, distress in the mortgage market, and corporate default risk, is investigated over the 1986-2010 period. We find that observed fluctuations in the financial fragility index can be attributed to identified (global and domestic) macroeconomic (20%) and financial disturbances (40% to 50%), over both short- and long-term horizons, as well as to oil-supply shocks in the long-term (25%). Over-all, differently from financial shocks, macroeconomic disturbances have generally had a stabilizing effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2013. "Determinants of US Financial fragility conditions," Working Papers 224, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:224
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
    2. Gupta, Rangan & Kanda, Patrick & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data: The role of US financial stress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Tanha, Hassan & Dempsey, Michael, 2015. "The asymmetric response of volatility to market changes and the volatility smile: Evidence from Australian options," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 164-176.
    4. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "The Institute of Financial Economics Financial Stress Index (IFEFSI) for Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı & A. Özlem Önder, 2021. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies: Are spatial effects important?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4653-4669, July.
    6. repec:jaf:journl:v:13:y:2022:i:1:n:441 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Derbali, Abdelkader & Hallara, Slaheddine, 2016. "Systemic risk of European financial institutions: Estimation and ranking by the Marginal Expected Shortfall," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 113-134.
    8. Carvallo, Oscar & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2013. "Macroeconomic Shocks, Housing Market and Banks’ Performance in Venezuela," MPRA Paper 58711, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2014.
    9. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    11. Rémi Stellian & Jenny Paola Danna-Buitrago & David Andr�s Londo�o Bedoya, 2018. "Fragilidad financiera empresarial y expectativas de ingresos: evidencias de un modelo multi-agentes," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 37(73).
    12. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2016. "Spikes and crashes in the oil market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 615-623.
    13. Unver, Mustafa & Dogru, Bulent, 2015. "The Determinants of Economic Fragility: Case of the Fragile Five Countries," MPRA Paper 68734, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    14. Rémi Stellian & Jenny P. Danna‐Buitrago, 2020. "Financial distress, free cash flow, and interfirm payment network: Evidence from an agent‐based model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 598-616, October.
    15. Mansour-Ichrakieh, Layal & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2019. "The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Lepers, Etienne & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2020. "Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    17. Rémi Stellian & Gabriel I. Penagos & Jenny P. Danna-Buitrago, 2021. "Firms in financial distress: evidence from inter-firm payment networks with volatility driven by ‘animal spirits’," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(1), pages 59-101, January.
    18. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Kenc, Turalay & Goodell, John W. & Gunay, Samet, 2025. "Enhancing banking systemic risk indicators by incorporating volatility clustering, variance risk premiums, and considering distance-to-capital," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    19. Matkovskyy, Roman & Bouraoui, Taoufik & Hammami, Helmi, 2016. "Analysing the financial strength of Tunisia: An approach to estimate an index of financial safety," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 485-493.
    20. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2015. "Interactions between oil and financial markets — Do conditions of financial stress matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 160-175.
    21. Oet, Mikhail V. & Ong, Stephen J., 2019. "From organization to activity in the US collateralized interbank market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 472-485.
    22. Claudio Morana, 2013. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks: New Insights on the US OIS SPreads Term Structure," Working Papers 233, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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