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Determinants of US financial fragility conditions

  • Fabio Bagliano

    ()

    (University of Turin)

  • Claudio Morana

    ()

    (University of Milano-Bicocca)

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the fragility of the US (and other countries') financial system under several respects. In this paper, the properties of a summary index of financial fragility, obtained by combining information conveyed by the "Agency", "Ted" and "BAA-AAA" spreads, timely capturing changes in credit and liquidity risk, distress in the mortgage market, and corporate default risk, are investigated over the 1986-2010 period. The empirical results show that observed fluctuations in the financial fragility index can be attributed to identified (global and domestic) macroeconomic (20%) and financial disturbances (40% to 50%), over both short- and long-term horizons, as well as to oil-supply shocks in the long-term (25%). The investigation of specific episodes of financial distress, occurred in 1987, 1998 and 2000, and, more recently, over the 2007-2009 period, shows that sizable fluctuations in the index are largely determined by financial shocks, while macroeconomic disturbances have generally had a stabilizing effect.

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File URL: http://www.cerp.carloalberto.org/it/pubblicazioni/working-papers/860-determinants-of-us-nancial-fragility-conditions
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Paper provided by Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy) in its series CeRP Working Papers with number 128.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:crp:wpaper:128
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  1. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March.
  2. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 34-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  3. Claudio Morana, 2012. "The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective," Working Papers 2012.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  5. Working, Holbrook, 1960. "Speculation on Hedging Markets," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 02, May.
  6. Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CRSP working papers 531, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
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