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Investment, Tobin's q, and Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Xiaoji

    (Ohio State University)

  • Wang, Chong

    (Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey)

  • Wang, Neng

    (Columbia University)

  • Yang, Jinqiang

    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract

To study the impact of stochastic interest rates and capital illiquidity on investment and firm value, we incorporate a widely-used arbitrage-free term structure model of interest rates into a standard q-theoretic framework. Our generalized q model informs us to use corporate credit-risk information to predict investments when empirical measurement issues of Tobin's average q are significant (e.g., equity is much more likely to be mis-priced than debt) as in Philippon (2009). Consistent with our theory, we find that credit spreads and bond q have significant predictive powers on micro-level and aggregate investments corroborating the recent empirical work of Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012). We also show that the quantitative effects of the stochastic interest rates and capital illiquidity on investment, Tobin's average q, the duration and user cost of capital, as well as the value of growth opportunities are substantial. These findings are particularly important in today's low interest-rate environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Xiaoji & Wang, Chong & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2016. "Investment, Tobin's q, and Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 2016-20, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2016-20
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bo Liu & Yingjie Niu & Jinqiang Yang & Zhentao Zou, 2020. "Time‐varying risk of rare disasters, investment, and asset pricing," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 503-524, August.
    3. Niu, Yingjie & Zhou, Lei & Zou, Zhentao, 2019. "A model of capacity choice under Knightian uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 189-194.
    4. Simmons-Süer, Banu, 2018. "“How relevant is capital structure for aggregate investment? a regime-switching approach”," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 109-117.
    5. Xia, Xin & Gan, Liu, 2021. "Financing with equity-for-guarantee swaps and dynamic investment under incomplete markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 349-360.
    6. Ramírez, Hugo E. & Serrano, Rafael, 2025. "Optimal investment with insurable background risk and nonlinear portfolio allocation frictions," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 485(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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