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The Q theory of investment: does uncertainty matter

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  • Hong Bo

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

This paper includes uncertainty in the Q-model of investment. A structural Q-type investment model is derived, which contains the information on uncertainty effects of random variables that affect the future profitability of a firm. We use a panel of 82 Dutch firms to test whether the presence of uncertainty affects the performance of the Q-model. Our evidence shows that the volatility of profits and the volatility of the interest rate influence investment apart from Q. Moreover, the presence of uncertainty factors changes the structural parameters of the Q-model of investment. The results suggest that the unsatisfactory empirical performance of the standard Q-model of investment may be due to the omission of uncertainty considerations. In addition, Dutch firm-level evidence shows that severe uncertainty effects are associated with small firms and highly indebted firms, which are more likely to be in financial distress. This provides indirect evidence that the wedge between external financing and internal financing aggravates the effect of uncertainty on investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong Bo, 1999. "The Q theory of investment: does uncertainty matter," Research Report 99E07, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    • Handle: RePEc:gro:rugsom:99e07
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    File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/182938891
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Mikael Carlsson, 2007. "Investment and Uncertainty: A Theory‐based Empirical Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(5), pages 603-617, October.
    5. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Stephan, Andreas & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2008. "Uncertainty determinants of corporate liquidity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 833-849, September.

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