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Growth options and firm valuation

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  • Kraft, Holger
  • Schwartz, Eduardo S.
  • Weiss, Farina

Abstract

This paper studies the relation between firm value and a firm's growth options. We find strong empirical evidence that (average) Tobin's Q increases with firm-level volatility. The significance mainly comes from R&D firms, which have more growth options than non-R&D firms. By decomposing firm-level volatility into its systematic and unsystematic part, we document that only idiosyncratic volatility has a significant effect on valuation. Second, we analyze the relation of stock returns to realized contemporaneous idiosyncratic volatility and R&D expenses. Single sorting on idiosyncratic volatility yields a significant negative relation between portfolio alphas and contemporaneous idiosyncratic volatility for non-R&D portfolios, whereas in a four-factor model the portfolio alphas of R&D portfolios are all positive. Double sorting on idiosyncratic volatility and R&D expenses also reveals these differences between R&D and non-R&D firms. To control for several explanatory variables simultaneously, we also run panel regressions of firm-level alphas which confirm the relative importance of idiosyncratic volatility that is amplified by R&D expenses. Finally, we show that our results are robust to the definition of idiosyncratic volatility. We tease out the ``true'' idiosyncratic volatilities by performing a principal-component analysis on the residuals of Fama-French regressions and find that our main results still hold for this alternative definition of idiosyncratic volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Kraft, Holger & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Weiss, Farina, 2017. "Growth options and firm valuation," SAFE Working Paper Series 6, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:6
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2224014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    3. Samaniego, Roberto & Sun, Juliana, 2016. "Gray's Anatomy: Understanding Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 72787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Suzuki, Kazuyuki & Chida, Ryokichi, 2017. "Contribution of R&D capital to differences in Tobin's q among Japanese manufacturing firms: Evidence from an investment-based asset pricing model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 38-58.
    5. Binding, Garret & Dibiasi, Andreas, 2017. "Exchange rate uncertainty and firm investment plans evidence from Swiss survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-27.
    6. Chien‐Chiang Lee & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Donald Lien, 2019. "Do country risk and financial uncertainty matter for energy commodity futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 366-383, March.
    7. Xiaofen Tan & Yongjiao Ma, 2017. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on international commodity prices," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 163-184, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm valuation; Real options; Volatility; R&D expenses; PCA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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