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Growth Options and Firm Valuation

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  • Holger Kraft
  • Eduardo S. Schwartz
  • Farina Weiss

Abstract

This paper studies the relation between firm value and a firm's growth options. We find strong empirical evidence that (average) Tobin's Q increases with firm-level volatility. The significance mainly comes from R&D firms, which have more growth options than non-R&D firms. By decomposing firm-level volatility into its systematic and unsystematic part, we document that only idiosyncratic volatility has a significant effect on valuation. Second, we analyze the relation of stock returns to realized contemporaneous idiosyncratic volatility and R&D expenses. Single sorting on idiosyncratic volatility yields a significant negative relation between portfolio alphas and contemporaneous idiosyncratic volatility for non-R&D portfolios, whereas in a four-factor model the portfolio alphas of R&D portfolios are all positive. Double sorting on idiosyncratic volatility and R&D expenses also reveals these differences between R&D and non-R&D firms. To control for several explanatory variables simultaneously, we also run panel regressions of firm-level alphas which confirm the relative importance of idiosyncratic volatility that is amplified by R&D expenses. Finally, we show that our results are robust to the definition of idiosyncratic volatility. We tease out the "true" idiosyncratic volatilities by performing a principal-component analysis on the residuals of Fama-French regressions and find that our main results still hold for this alternative definition of idiosyncratic volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Kraft & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Farina Weiss, 2013. "Growth Options and Firm Valuation," NBER Working Papers 18836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18836
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    2. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    4. Samaniego, Roberto & Sun, Juliana, 2016. "Gray's Anatomy: Understanding Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 72787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Suzuki, Kazuyuki & Chida, Ryokichi, 2017. "Contribution of R&D capital to differences in Tobin's q among Japanese manufacturing firms: Evidence from an investment-based asset pricing model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 38-58.
    6. Binding, Garret & Dibiasi, Andreas, 2017. "Exchange rate uncertainty and firm investment plans evidence from Swiss survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-27.
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Şerban Miclea & Simina Silvana Suciu & Matei Tămăşilă, 2018. "Firm-level investment in the extractive industry from CEE countries: the role of macroeconomic uncertainty and internal conditions," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 193-208, June.
    8. Rodrigo Cerda & Álvaro Silva & José Tomás Valente, 2018. "Impact of economic uncertainty in a small open economy: the case of Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(26), pages 2894-2908, June.
    9. Xiaofen Tan & Yongjiao Ma, 2017. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on international commodity prices," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 163-184, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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