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Political referenda and investment: evidence from Scotland

Author

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  • Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres

Abstract

We present evidence that referenda have a significant, detrimental outcome on investment. Employing an unsupervised machine learning algorithm over the period 2008-2017, we construct three important uncertainty indices underlying reports in the Scottish news media: Scottish independence (IndyRef)-related uncertainty; Brexit-related uncertainty; and Scottish policy-related uncertainty. Examining the relationship of these indices with investment on a longitudinal panel of 3,589 Scottish firms, the evidence suggests that Brexit-related uncertainty associates more strongly than IndyRef -related uncertainty to investment. Our preferred specification suggests that a one standard-deviation increase in Brexit uncertainty foreshadows a reduction in investment by 8% on average in the following year. Besides we find that the uncertainty associated with the Scottish referendum for independence while negligible at the aggregate level, relates more strongly with the investment of listed firms as well as those operating on the border with England. In addition, we present evidence of greater sensitivity to these indices among firms that are financially constrained or whose investment is to a greater degree irreversible. JEL Classification: C80, D80, E22, E66, G18, G31

Suggested Citation

  • Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres, 2020. "Political referenda and investment: evidence from Scotland," Working Paper Series 2403, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202403
    Note: 2460732
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2403~364bf11406.en.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen, Minh Hong & Trinh, Vu Quang, 2023. "U.K. economic policy uncertainty and innovation activities: A firm-level analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    2. Shams, Syed & Gunaskerage, Abeyratna & Velayutham, Eswaran, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and acquisition performance: Australian evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 286-308.
    3. Zeng, Ting & Zhao, Wei & Liu, Zhengning, 2022. "Investment response to exchange rate uncertainty: Evidence from Chinese exporters," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 488-505.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; machine learning; political uncertainty; textual-data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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