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Inflation and Nominal Uncertainty: the case of Greece

Author

Listed:
  • Hiona Balfoussia

    () (Bank of Greece)

  • Heather Gibson

    () (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty for Greece between 1981 and 2008. Univariate GARCH models are used to generate alternative measures of inflation uncertainty using both seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted data. Granger causality tests are subsequently employed to investigate causality and to detect its direction and sign. The results suggest that causality runs from inflation to inflation uncertainty while the sign of this effect is positive, in line with the Friedman-Ball hypothesis. Interestingly these findings break down in the post-1993 and post-2000 periods, arguably as a consequence of inflation-targeting, which resulted in lower inflation, reduced uncertainty and anchored expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiona Balfoussia & Heather Gibson, 2010. "Inflation and Nominal Uncertainty: the case of Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 33, pages 63-78, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bog:econbl:y:2010:i:33:p:63-78
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    File URL: https://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/econbull201005.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Costas N. Kanellopoulos, 2012. "The Size and structure of uninsured employment," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 37, pages 23-41, December.
    2. Papaspyrou Theodoros, 2012. "EMU sustainability and the prospects of peripheral economies," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 36, pages 7-29, April.
    3. Dimitra Dimitropoulou & Anastasia Koutsomanoli-Filippaki & Evangelos Charalambakis & Georgios Aggelis, 2014. "The financing of Greek enterprises before and during the crisis," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 39, pages 7-20, July.
    4. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Stelios Panagiotou, 2010. "Determinants of the receipts from shipping services: the case of Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 34, pages 41-55, September.
    5. Costas N. Kanellopoulos, 2012. "Employment and worker flows during the financial crisis," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 36, pages 31-41, April.
    6. Costas N. Kanellopoulos, 2014. "The private sector Greek labour market during the crisis," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 39, pages 21-36, July.
    7. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2013. "Interaction entre politique monétaire et politique budgétaire:Cas de la Grèce
      [Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions : The Greece Case]
      ," MPRA Paper 45931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Faidon Kalfaoglou, 2012. "Bank capital adequacy framework," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 36, pages 43-81, April.
    9. Theodoros Mitrakos & Panos Tsaklogou & Ioannis Cholezas, 2010. "Determinants of the wage rates in Greece with an emphasis on the wages of tertiary education graduates," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 34, pages 7-40, September.
    10. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2014. "Fiscal Theory of Price Level," MPRA Paper 60142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Dimitrios Sideris, 2012. "Do retail gasoline prices adjust symmetrically to crude oil price changes? the case of the Greek oil market," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 37, pages 7-21, December.
    12. Sophia Lazaretou, 2014. "The smart economy: cultural and creative industries in Greece: can they be a way out of the crisis?," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 39, pages 73-103, July.
    13. Petros M. Migiakis, 2012. "Reviewing the proposals for common bond issuances by the euro-area sovereign under a long-term perspective," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 37, pages 43-54, December.
    14. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2013. "La coordination des politiques monétaire et budgétaire: Aperçu théorique
      [Coordination of monetary and fiscal policies: Theoretical Overview]
      ," MPRA Paper 48020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Aikaterini Chaireti, 2014. "The housing situation of residents of Greece in the time of crisis 2008-2012," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 39, pages 105-141, July.
    16. Faidon Kalfaoglou, 2014. "European banking union: “Europeanising” banks’ financial safety net," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 39, pages 37-72, July.
    17. Heather Gibson & Hiona Balfoussia, 2010. "The impact of nominal and real uncertainty on macroeconomic aggregates in Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 34, pages 57-71, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; inflation uncertainty; Greece;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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