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The donut effect of Covid-19 on cities

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  • Bloom, Nicholas
  • Ramani, Arjun

Abstract

Using data from the US Postal Service and Zillow, we quantify the effect of Covid-19 on migration patterns and real estate markets within and across US cities. We find two key results. First, within large US cities, households, businesses, and real estate demand have moved from dense central business districts (CBDs) towards lower density suburban zip-codes. We label this the 'Donut Effect' reflecting the movement of activity out of city centers to the suburban ring. Second, while this observed reallocation occurs within cities, we do not see major reallocation across cities. That is, there is less evidence for large-scale movement of activity from large US cities to smaller regional cities or towns. We rationalize these findings by noting that working patterns post pandemic will frequently be hybrid, with workers commuting to their business premises typically three days per week. This level of commuting is less than pre-pandemic, making suburbs relatively more popular, but too frequent to allow employees to leave the cities containing their employer.

Suggested Citation

  • Bloom, Nicholas & Ramani, Arjun, 2021. "The donut effect of Covid-19 on cities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113876, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:113876
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/113876/
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    Cited by:

    1. Cevat Giray Aksoy & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Mathias Dolls & Pablo Zarate, 2022. "Working from Home Around the World," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 23(06), pages 38-41, October.
    2. Chen, Kong-Pin & Yang, Jui-Chung & Yang, Tzu-Ting, 2022. "JUE insight: Demand for transportation and spatial pattern of economic activity during the pandemic," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Molly Boesel & Shu Chen & Frank E. Nothaft, 2021. "Housing preferences during the pandemic: effect on home price, rent, and inflation measurement," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 200-211, October.
    4. Althoff, Lukas & Eckert, Fabian & Ganapati, Sharat & Walsh, Conor, 2022. "The Geography of Remote Work," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Fernando V. Ferreira & Maisy Wong, 2022. "Neighborhood Choice After COVID: The Role of Rents, Amenities, and Work-From-Home," NBER Working Papers 29960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Brent Meyer & Emil Mihaylov & Jose Maria Barrero & Steven J. Davis & David Altig & Nicholas Bloom, 2022. "Pandemic-Era Uncertainty," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, July.
    7. Khan,Amjad Muhammad & Park,Hogeun & Roberts,Mark & Wibisana,Putu Sanjiwacika, 2022. "When the Lights Go Out : The Economic Impacts of Covid-19 on Cities Globally," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10189, The World Bank.
    8. Tsai, I-Chun, 2022. "Changes in social behavior and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional housing markets: Independence and risk," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    9. Arpit Gupta & Vrinda Mittal & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2022. "Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse," NBER Working Papers 30526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. John A. Mondragon & Johannes Wieland, 2022. "Housing Demand and Remote Work," NBER Working Papers 30041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Gamber, William & Graham, James & Yadav, Anirudh, 2021. "Stuck at Home: Housing Demand During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 2021-12, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    12. Jinwon Kim & Dede Long, 2022. "What Flattened the House-Price Gradient? The Role of Work-from-Home and Decreased Commuting Cost," Working Papers 2205, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
    13. Jason Brown & Colton Tousey, 2021. "How the Pandemic Influenced Trends in Domestic Migration across U.S. Urban Areas," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 106(no. 4), November.
    14. Jean-Victor Alipour & Oliver Falck & Simon Krause & Carla Krolage & Sebastian Wichert, 2022. "The Future of Work and Consumption in Cities after the Pandemic: Evidence from Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 10000, CESifo.
    15. Brian J. Asquith & Margaret C. Bock, 2022. "The Case for Dynamic Cities," Upjohn Working Papers 22-373, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    16. Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto & Giordano Zevi & Roberta Zizza, 2021. "Living on my own: the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on housing preferences," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 627, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Randriamaro, Mary Tiana & Cook, Joseph, 2022. "The value of time, with and without a smartphone," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 138-146.
    18. Sotiris Blanas & Rigas Oikonomou, 2022. "Covid-induced Economic Uncertainty, Tasks, and Occupational Demand," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2022002, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; US 'donut effect'; migration patterns; firm-specific shocks; earnings; coronavirus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General

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