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Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited

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  • Clements, Michael P.

Abstract

Past analyses of surveys of professional forecasters’ histogram and point forecasts indicate that the two are not always consistent. The point forecasts are either systematically higher or lower than the corresponding histogram means, depending on whether we consider inflation or GDP growth. We consider whether inconsistencies are related to delayed updating of the histogram forecasts, or to the reaction of the two types of forecasts to new information, and whether inconsistent pairs typically imply less accurate point or histogram forecasts. We also re-consider explanations related to the complexity of the task on an extended dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Clements, Michael P., 2025. "Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:236:y:2025:i:c:s0167268125002161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107097
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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