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Deflation risk in the euro area and central bank credibility

Author

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  • Galati, Gabriele
  • Gorgi, Zion
  • Moessner, Richhild
  • Zhou, Chen

Abstract

We analyze a new option-based indicator of market perceptions of euro area deflation risks. We find that during 2010–2015, long-term deflation risks became slightly more sensitive to oil price changes and inflation surprises, suggesting a subtle weakening in anchoring.

Suggested Citation

  • Galati, Gabriele & Gorgi, Zion & Moessner, Richhild & Zhou, Chen, 2018. "Deflation risk in the euro area and central bank credibility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 124-126.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:167:y:2018:i:c:p:124-126
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.03.028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sara Cecchetti & Filippo Natoli & Laura Sigalotti, 2015. "Tail comovement in option-implied inflation expectations as an indicator of anchoring," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1025, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
    3. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    4. Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2011. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 104-129, April.
    5. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    6. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Richhild Mössner, 2014. "Inflation Expectations, Central Bank Credibility and the Global Financial Crisis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(II), pages 55-87, June.
    7. Antonio M. Conti & Stefano Neri & Andrea Nobili, 2015. "Why is inflation so low in the euro area?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1019, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
    9. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2018:q:0:a:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    11. Smith, Tom, 2012. "Option-implied probability distributions for future inflation," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(3), pages 224-234.
    12. Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2015. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro-area option-implied inflation expectations, and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 248-269.
    13. Michael Bordo & Andrew Filardo, 2005. "Deflation and monetary policy in a historical perspective: remembering the past or being condemned to repeat it?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 799-844, October.
    14. Claudio Borio & Magdalena Erdem & Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2015. "The costs of deflations: a historical perspective," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    15. Michael D. Bordo & Angela Redish, 2003. "Is Deflation depressing? Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 9520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Grégory Levieuge & Yannick Lucotte & Sébastien Ringuedé, 2018. "Central bank credibility and the expectations channel: evidence based on a new credibility index," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(3), pages 493-535, August.
    2. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2016. "Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations," CSEF Working Papers 458, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deflation; Inflation expectations; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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