IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Structure of Expectations of the Weekly Money Supply Announcement


  • Thomas Urich
  • Paul Wachtel


This paper examines the structure of expectations of the weekly money supply announcement in the late 1970s. The data used are from a weekly telephone survey of money market participants. The rationality and structure of expectations are explored with the data organized in three ways:the mean response to each weekly survey, the pooled sample of individual responses, and time series of responses by each individual in the survey.The effect of data aggregation on rationality tests is investigated. The structure of the expectations data are also examined and it is found that both strong regressive influences and adaptive learning characterize the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Urich & Paul Wachtel, 1983. "The Structure of Expectations of the Weekly Money Supply Announcement," NBER Working Papers 1090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1090
    Note: ME

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Pesando, James E, 1975. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 849-858, August.
    2. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-793, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Deaves, Richard & Melino, Angelo & Pesando, James E., 1987. "The response of interest rates to the Federal Reserve's weekly money announcements : The 'puzzle' of anticipated money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 393-404, May.
    2. Bonham, Carl S & Cohen, Richard H, 2001. "To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 278-291, July.
    3. Higgins, Matthew L. & Mishra, Sagarika, 2014. "State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 627-632.
    4. R. W. Hafer, 1985. "Investigating weekly survey forecasts of the federal funds rate," Working Papers 1985-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Ahmed Khwaja & Frank Sloan & Sukyung Chung, 2007. "The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 179-201, October.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1090. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.