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Bond positions, expectations, and the yield curve

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  • Monika Piazzesi
  • Martin Schneider

Abstract

This paper implements a structural model of the yield curve with data on nominal positions and survey forecasts. Bond prices are characterized in terms of investors' current portfolio holdings as well as their subjective beliefs about future bond payoffs. Risk premia measured by an econometrician vary because of changes in investors' subjective risk premia that are identified from portfolios and subjective beliefs but also because subjective beliefs differ from those of the econometrician. The main result is that investors' systematic forecast errors are an important source of business cycle variation in measured risk premia. By contrast, subjective risk premia move less and more slowly over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Bond positions, expectations, and the yield curve," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2008-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
    2. Luis Gil‐Alana & Antonio Moreno & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2012. "Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 524-539, September.
    3. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    4. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
    5. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    Keywords

    Bonds - Prices ; Consumer behavior;

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