IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v48y2017icp69-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate pass through, cost channel to monetary policy transmission, adaptive learning, and the price puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Ali, Syed Zahid
  • Anwar, Sajid

Abstract

Using a New Keynesian open economy model, where the supply side effects of the exchange rate pass through as well as the cost channel of monetary policy transmission are taken into account, this paper evaluates the possibility of the price puzzle, which refers to anomalous behavior of inflation to a monetary shock. Unlike the existing studies, we consider the possibility of the price puzzle when agent expectations are based on adaptive learning and three monetary policy alternatives (the optimal monetary policy, money growth targeting, and a Calvo-type policy rule) are available to the central bank. Furthermore, we use two alternative measures of inflation. Calibration of our medium scale model, using plausible parameter values, reveals that irrespective of how the inflation rate is measured and the policy rule used by the central bank, the puzzle fades away when a sufficiently strong exchange rate pass through is present in the economy. We also find that a decrease in inflation is associated with a cost to the society in the form of lower aggregate output but this loss is minimum when the central bank uses the optimal monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2017. "Exchange rate pass through, cost channel to monetary policy transmission, adaptive learning, and the price puzzle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 69-82.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:48:y:2017:i:c:p:69-82
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2016.11.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056016302970
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2010. "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1651-1680, April.
    2. Sutherland, Alan, 2006. "The expenditure switching effect, welfare and monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1159-1182, July.
    3. Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Raf, 2012. "Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 26-46.
    4. Molnár, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy when agents are learning," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 39-62.
    5. Carl Walsh, 2003. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 265-278, March.
    6. Gabriel, Vasco J. & Levine, Paul & Spencer, Christopher, 2009. "How forward-looking is the Fed? Direct estimates from a 'Calvo-type' rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 92-95, August.
    7. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2016. "Can exchange rate pass-through explain the price puzzle?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 56-59.
    8. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June.
    9. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 33-82, February.
    10. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
    11. Paul Levine & Peter McAdam & Joseph Pearlman, 2007. "Inflation-Forecast-Based Rules and Indeterminacy: A Puzzle and a Resolution," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 77-110, December.
    12. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Adaptive Learning, Persistence, and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 376-385, 04-05.
    13. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2005. "The Price Puzzle and Indeterminacy," Macroeconomics 0507021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 324-359, April.
    15. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    16. Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Pick, Andreas, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 685-707.
    17. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 2003. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1476-1498, December.
    18. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
    19. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2015. "The exchange rate pass-through to import and export prices: The role of nominal rigidities and currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-25.
    20. Guender, Alfred V., 2003. "Optimal discretionary monetary policy in the open economy : Choosing between CPI and domestic inflation as target variables," Research Discussion Papers 12/2003, Bank of Finland.
    21. Auray, St Phane & F Ve, Patrick, 2008. "On Sunspots, Habits, And Monetary Facts," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(01), pages 72-96, February.
    22. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
    23. Evans, George & Gulamani, Riyaz, 1984. "Tests for Rationality of the Carlson-Parkin Inflation Expectations Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, February.
    24. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    25. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    26. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S., 2006. "Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs and the Insensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Why Do Consumer Prices React Less Than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 662-670, 04/05.
    28. Blake, Andrew P. & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2004. "A note on timeless perspective policy design," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 9-16, October.
    29. Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1271-1296, September.
    30. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    31. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Survey Evidence on The Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2005. "The Price Puzzle: Fact or Artefact?," Macroeconomics 0505015, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jul 2005.
    33. Ivrendi, Mehmet & Guloglu, Bulent, 2010. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1144-1155, September.
    34. Kiliç, Rehim, 2016. "Regime-dependent exchange-rate pass-through to import prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 295-308.
    35. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1980. "Survey evidence on the `rationality' of interest rate expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-465, October.
    36. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.
    37. Jeong, Jinook & Maddala, G S, 1996. "Testing the Rationality of Survey Data Using the Weighted Double-Bootstrapped Method of Moments," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 296-302, May.
    38. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783.
    39. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    40. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302 Elsevier.
    41. Fabio Milani, 2011. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 379-401, May.
    42. Bonham, Carl S & Cohen, Richard H, 2001. "To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 278-291, July.
    43. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 528-563, April.
    44. Llosa, Luis-Gonzalo & Tuesta, Vicente, 2009. "Learning about monetary policy rules when the cost-channel matters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1880-1896, November.
    45. Richard T. Froyen & Alfred V. Guender, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12510, June.
    46. Sutherland, Alan, 2005. "Incomplete pass-through and the welfare effects of exchange rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 375-399, March.
    47. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
    48. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2012. "The role of inflation regime in the exchange rate pass-through to import prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 88-96.
    49. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    50. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2003. "Price Stability in Open Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 743-764.
    51. Pau Rabanal, 2003. "The Cost Channel of Monetary Policy; Further Evidence for the United States and the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 03/149, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Bonham, Carl S & Dacy, Douglas C, 1991. "In Search of a "Strictly Rational" Forecast," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 245-253, May.
    53. Takhtamanova, Yelena F., 2010. "Understanding changes in exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1118-1130, December.
    54. Hanson, Michael S., 2004. "The "price puzzle" reconsidered," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1385-1413, October.
    55. Kapinos, Pavel, 2011. "Forward-looking monetary policy and anticipated shocks to inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 620-633.
    56. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Learning; Exchange rate pass through; Price puzzle; Cost channel; Calvo rule; Optimal monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:48:y:2017:i:c:p:69-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.