IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0824.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation and the Valuation of Corporate Equities

Author

Listed:
  • Lawrence H. Summers

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and the return on individual corporate securities. This question is of substantial importance in light of the puzzling behavior of the stock market over the last decade. Conventional financial theory holds that equity should be a good inflation hedge since it represents a claim of real rather than nominal assets. Yet a negative relationship between both expected and unexpected inflation and stock market returns has been widely documented. This relationship, which appears to antedate the surge in inflation over the last 15 years. might provide an explanation for the market's surprising recent performance. This paper studies differences across firms in the response of stock market values to changes in expected inflation in an effort to explore the reasons for the aggregate negative relationship between inflation and stock market values. Two opposing hypotheses about the impact of inflation on market valuation are contrasted. The "inflation illusion" hypothesis holds that investors are not able to see through nominal accounting statements and respond to reported rather than real profits. The opposing "tax effects" hypothesis holds that firms which report spuriously high profits due to inflation are penalized because the extra tax burden incurred reduces real profits. The results from the 1970's strongly bear out the predictions of the tax effects hypothesis. Aggregate calculations suggest that the interaction of inflation and taxation can account for a large part of the decline in the stock market which has been observed over the past decade. A significant part of the remainder appears to be due to increasing investor awareness of the need to adjust for historic cost depreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Inflation and the Valuation of Corporate Equities," NBER Working Papers 0824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0824
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0824.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeremy I. Bulow, 1979. "Analysis of Pension Funding Under Erisa," NBER Working Papers 0402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Martin Feldstein & Lawrence Summers, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Long-term Interest Rate," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 153-185, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 186-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Pesando, James E, 1975. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 849-858, August.
    5. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    6. John B. Shoven & Jeremy I. Bulow, 1975. "Inflation Accounting and Nonfinancial Corporate Profits: Physical Assets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(3), pages 557-612.
    7. John A. Carlson, 1977. "A Study of Price Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 1, pages 27-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Aaron, Henry J, 1976. "Inflation and the Income Tax," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 193-199, May.
    9. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 199-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    12. Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-470, May.
    13. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    14. William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven & Laurence Weiss, 1980. "The Financial Valuation of the Return to Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 453-512.
    15. Hong, Hai, 1977. "Inflation and the Market Value of the Firm: Theory and Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1031-1048, September.
    16. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    17. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Mandelker, Gershon, 1976. "The "Fisher Effect" for Risky Assets: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 447-458, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
    2. Pindyck, Robert S, 1984. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-351, June.
    3. Vadim Ye. Zyamalov, 2017. "Comparison of the Predictive Ability of Single and Multi-Regime Models of Stock Market Dynamics," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 2, pages 64-75, April.
    4. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    5. Steven A. Sharpe, 1999. "Stock prices, expected returns, and inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Konchitchki, Yaniv, 2011. "Inflation and Nominal Financial Reporting: Implications for Performance and Stock Prices," MPRA Paper 52928, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Observations on the Indexation of Old Age Pensions," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System, pages 231-258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Md. Mohiuddin & Md. Didarul Alam & Abdullah Ibneyy Shahid, 2008. "An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Price: A Study on Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE)," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-21, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Jun 2008.
    9. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates: A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Papers 0836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Modigliani, Franco. & Cohn, Richard A., 1984. "Inflation and corporate financial management," Working papers 1572-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    11. Lawrence H. Summers, 1985. "The Asset Price Approach to the Analysis of Capital Income Taxation," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: George R. Feiwel (ed.), Issues in Contemporary Macroeconomics and Distribution, chapter 19, pages 429-443, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Turuntseva, M. & Zyamalov, V., 2016. "Stock Markets under the Changing Terms of Trade," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 93-109.
    13. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Tax Policy, the Rate of Return, and Savings," NBER Working Papers 0995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    2. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    3. Patric H. Hendershott & Roger D. Huang, 1985. "Debt and Equity Yields, 1926-1980," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Capital Structures in the United States, pages 117-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Pindyck, Robert S, 1984. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-351, June.
    5. Bharat R. Kolluri, 1982. "Anticipated Price Changes, Inflation Uncertainty, And Capital Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 5(2), pages 135-149, June.
    6. Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money," NBER Working Papers 0958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Patric H. Hendershott & Roger D. Huang, 1983. "Debt and Equity Yields: 1926-80," NBER Working Papers 1142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Rapach, David E., 2002. "The long-run relationship between inflation and real stock prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, September.
    9. Dirk Brounen & Piet Eichholtz & Stefan Staetmans & Marcel Theebe, 2014. "Inflation Protection from Homeownership: Long-Run Evidence, 1814–2008," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 662-689, September.
    10. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    11. Omran, Mohammed & Pointon, John, 2001. "Does the inflation rate affect the performance of the stock market? The case of Egypt," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 263-279, September.
    12. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2012. "Stock returns and inflation: Evidence from quantile regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 283-286.
    13. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Christian Aubin & Daniel Goyeau, 2017. "Stock prices, inflation and inflation uncertainty in the U.S.: testing the long-run relationship considering Dow Jones sector indexes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1794-1807, April.
    14. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Michael Weber, 2018. "Low Inflation: High Default Risk AND High Equity Valuations," NBER Working Papers 25317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Gwangheon Hong & Bong Lee, 2013. "Does Inflation Illusion Explain the Relation between REITs and Inflation?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 123-151, July.
    16. Robert Faff & Richard Heaney, 1999. "An examination of the relationship between Australian industry equity returns and expected inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 915-933.
    17. Bjorn Wahlroos & Tom Berglund, 1984. "Stock Returns," Discussion Papers 598, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    18. Madsen, Jakob B., 2002. "The share market boom and the recent disinflation in the OECD countries: the tax-effects, the inflation-illusion and the risk-aversion hypotheses reconsidered1," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 115-141.
    19. Branston, Christopher B. & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2004. "Investment and share prices: fundamental versus speculative components," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-226, August.
    20. Benedikt Fleischmann & Carsten Fritz & Steffen Sebastian, 2019. "Real Estate, Stocks, and Bonds as a Deflation Hedge," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(1), pages 1-26.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0824. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.