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Stock returns and Inflation:Evidence from Quantile Regressions



The relationship between stock returns and inflation is examined for the G7 countries and some positive coefficients in the distribution for Italy and the UK were revealed. A positive one-for-one relationship is found once a GARCH filter is employed in all cases except Canada..

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2012. "Stock returns and Inflation:Evidence from Quantile Regressions," Discussion Paper Series 2012_04, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2012_04

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Nelson, Charles R, 1976. "Inflation and Rates of Return on Common Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 471-483, May.
    2. Koenker, Roger & Machado, Jose A. F., 1999. "GMM inference when the number of moment conditions is large," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 327-344, December.
    3. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters,in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 199-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters,in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 186-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    6. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    7. Bodie, Zvi, 1976. "Common Stocks as a Hedge against Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 459-470, May.
    8. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, March.
    9. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Macroeconomics and ARCH," NBER Working Papers 14151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    11. Gultekin, N Bulent, 1983. " Stock Market Returns and Inflation: Evidence from Other Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, March.
    12. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Mandelker, Gershon, 1976. "The "Fisher Effect" for Risky Assets: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 447-458, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ipn:libros:017 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Ting-Ju Chen, 2015. "Quantile Regression-Based Probabilistic Estimation Scheme for Daily and Annual Suspended Sediment Loads," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2805-2818, June.
    3. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    4. Lawal Isola ADEDOYIN & Frank AWONUSI & Martins I. OLOYE, 2015. "All share price and inflation volatility in Nigeria. An application of the EGARCH model," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(34), pages 75-82, May.
    5. repec:eee:ecmode:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:258-271 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Atilla Cifter, 2015. "Stock Returns, Inflation, and Real Activity in Developing Countries: A Markov-Switching Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(1), pages 55-76, March.
    7. Babajide Abiola Ayopo & Lawal Adedoyin Isola & Somoye Russel Olukayode, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility: Does Our Fundamentals Matter?," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 33-42.
    8. Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "The Fisher effect: Evidence from the Romanian Stock Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(5), pages 637-644, May.

    More about this item


    Stock Returns; Inflation; Hedging; quantile regression.;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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