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Can governance quality predict stock market returns? New global evidence

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Sharma, Susan Sunila
  • Thuraisamy, Kannan S.

Abstract

We develop country-level governance indices using governance risk factors and examine whether country-level governance can predict stock market returns. We find that country-level governance predicts stock market returns only in countries where governance quality is poor. For countries with well-developed governance, there is no evidence that governance predicts returns. Our findings also confirm that investors in countries with weak governance can utilise information contained in country-level governance indicators to devise profitable portfolio strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2015. "Can governance quality predict stock market returns? New global evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 367-380.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:35:y:2015:i:pa:p:367-380
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2015.02.007
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Westerlund, Joakim & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Zheng, Xinwei, 2015. "Testing for stock return predictability in a large Chinese panel," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 81-100.
    2. Gannon, Gerard L. & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2017. "Sovereign risk and the impact of crisis: Evidence from Latin AmericaAuthor-Name: Batten, Jonathan A," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 328-350.
    3. Slesman, Ly & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Ra'ees, Wahabuddin, 2015. "Institutional infrastructure and economic growth in member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 214-226.
    4. repec:eme:ijmfpp:ijmf-02-2017-0018 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2016. "Reexamining the relationship between inflation and growth: Do institutions matter in developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 332-351.
    6. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2016. "Industry returns, market returns and economic fundamentals: Evidence for the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 89-106.
    7. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Li, Mengling & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2015. "Modeling dependence structures among international stock markets: Evidence from hierarchical Archimedean copulas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 308-314.
    8. repec:eee:ememar:v:32:y:2017:i:c:p:28-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Balachandran, Balasingham & Faff, Robert, 2015. "Corporate governance, firm value and risk: Past, present, and future," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 1-12.
    10. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:547-558 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2016. "Reexamining the relationship between inflation and growth: Do institutions matter in developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 332-351.
    12. Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2016. "Can consumer price index predict gold price returns?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 269-278.
    13. Changqing, Luo & Chi, Xie & Cong, Yu & Yan, Xu, 2015. "Measuring financial market risk contagion using dynamic MRS-Copula models: The case of Chinese and other international stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 657-671.
    14. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2017. "Does Financial News Predict Stock Returns? New Evidence from Islamic and Non-Islamic Stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 24-45.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Predictability; Returns; Governance; Country characteristics;

    JEL classification:

    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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