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Predictions of corporate bond excess returns

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  • Lin, Hai
  • Wang, Junbo
  • Wu, Chunchi

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the predictability of corporate bond excess returns using a comprehensive data sample for the period from January 1973 to December 2010. We find that corporate bond returns are more predictable than stock returns, and the predictability tends to be higher for low-grade bonds and short-maturity bonds. A forward rate factor captures substantial variations in expected bond excess returns. Furthermore, liquidity factors and a bond׳s credit spread have predictive power on corporate bond excess returns. Combining these variables with traditional predictors significantly improves the performance of the predictive model for corporate bond returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Hai & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2014. "Predictions of corporate bond excess returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 123-152.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:21:y:2014:i:c:p:123-152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2014.08.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Campbell, T. Colin & Chichernea, Doina C. & Petkevich, Alex, 2016. "Dissecting the bond profitability premium," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 102-131.
    2. Hammami, Yacine & Bahri, Maha, 2016. "On the determinants of expected corporate bond returns in Tunisia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 224-235.
    3. Scholz, Michael & Sperlich, Stefan & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2016. "Nonparametric long term prediction of stock returns with generated bond yields," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-96.
    4. Raffestin, Louis, 2017. "Do bond credit ratings lead to excess comovement?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 41-55.
    5. Louis RAFFESTIN, 2016. "Do bond credit ratings lead to excess comovement," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2481, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return predictability; Default premium; Term premium; Duration; Credit spreads; Liquidity;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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