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Some million thresholds: Nonlinearity and cross-country growth regressions


  • Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo

    (University of Vienna)


This paper examines the robustness of the determinants of economic growth in cross-country regressions allowing for nonlinearity in the specification of the data generating process. The nonlinearity is modelled as regime-dependent parameter heterogeneity, where the regime is determined by the level of the explanatory variable whose robustness we aim to measure. Using a generalization of the procedure in Sala-i-Martin (American Economic Review, 1997), strong evidence of nonlinearity is found for practically all of the variables that are robustly correlated to growth in the linear setting, including those variables which are usually included in most cross-county growth regressions.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, 2003. "Some million thresholds: Nonlinearity and cross-country growth regressions," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 51, Royal Economic Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:51

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ann P. Bartel, 1992. "Training, Wage Growth and Job Performance: Evidence From a Company Database," NBER Working Papers 4027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Jorn-Steffen Pischke, 1999. "The Structure of Wages and Investment in General Training," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 539-572, June.
    3. Bartel, Ann P, 1995. "Training, Wage Growth, and Job Performance: Evidence from a Company Database," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(3), pages 401-425, July.
    4. Alba-Ramirez, Alfonso, 1994. "Formal Training, Temporary Contracts, Productivity and Wages in Spain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(2), pages 151-170, May.
    5. Agarwal, Rajshree, 1996. "Technological activity and survival of firms," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 101-108, July.
    6. John Bishop, 1994. "The Impact of Previous Training on Productivity and Wages," NBER Chapters,in: Training and the Private Sector: International Comparisons, pages 161-200 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot, 2007. "Nonlinearities in cross-country growth regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 541-554, September.
    2. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Silgoner, 2014. "Economic Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Tale of Two Thresholds," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 843-860, July.
    3. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Groth effects of inflation in Europe: How low is too low, how high is too high?," Vienna Economics Papers 0411, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.

    More about this item


    growth regressions; robustness; nonlinearity; threshold models;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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