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Economic Crisis in Europe: Panel Analysis of Inflation, Unemployment and Gross Domestic Product Growth Rates

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  • Bibi Rouksar-Dussoyea
  • Ho Ming-Kang
  • Raja Rajeswari
  • Benjamin Chan Yin-Fah

Abstract

This panel analysis study is conducted to examine the relationship between inflation rates (CPI) and unemployment rates (HUR) with the Gross Domestic Product growth rates (GDP), before and after the 2008 European crisis. Quarterly data for 18 consecutive years and six sample countries from Europe (Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary and United Kingdom) have been considered in the panel. In order to get a more profound understanding of the impacts of the European crisis on the relationship between the variables, the panel data set has been classified into 3 separate panels, such that Panel 1 (1999Q1-2007Q4) represents before-crisis panel, Panel 2 (2008Q1-2016Q4) represents the during/after crisis panel and lastly, Panel 3 (1999Q1-2016Q4) represents the long-run panel. Panel 1 is subject to the Fixed Effects with LSDV model, whereby four out of the six countries are significant, and CPI and HUR are insignificant predictors of the GDP. Both Panel 2 and Panel 3 are subject to the Two-way Random Effects model, whereby both CPI and HUR have negative significant effect on GDP. Granger Causality test has also been carried out to determine whether causality is present among variables, based on each panel.

Suggested Citation

  • Bibi Rouksar-Dussoyea & Ho Ming-Kang & Raja Rajeswari & Benjamin Chan Yin-Fah, 2017. "Economic Crisis in Europe: Panel Analysis of Inflation, Unemployment and Gross Domestic Product Growth Rates," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(10), pages 145-154, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:10:p:145-154
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Max Gillman & Mark Harris & László Mátyás, 2002. "Inflation and Growth: Some Theory and Evidence," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 D5-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    2. Zagler, Martin, 2003. "The Dynamics of Economic Growth and Unemployment in Major European Countries: Analysis of Okun´s Law," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(3).
    3. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Silgoner, 2014. "Economic Growth and Inflation in Europe: A Tale of Two Thresholds," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 843-860, July.
    4. David, Drukker & Pedro, Gomis-Porqueras & Paula, Hernandez -erme, 2005. "Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth: a new panel-data approach," MPRA Paper 38225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. António Neto & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "Growth and Unemployment: A bibliometric analysis on mechanisms and methods," FEP Working Papers 498, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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