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Threshold Effect of Inflation on Agricultural Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries

Author

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  • Goodness C. Aye

    (Department of Economics, University of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Nicholas M. Odhiambo

    (Department of Economics, University of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract

The paper examined the inflation-agricultural growth nexus in developing countries with the aim of identifying the inflation threshold that could benefit or harm the sector. We used panel data from 1970 to 2019 and the dynamic panel threshold model which accounts for endogeneity. Aside from inflation and agriculture GDP growth, we included the foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic credit to the private sector, and urbanization as control variables. The results show that credit has an enhancing effect on agriculture while urbanization has a diminishing effect. More importantly, we established that the inflation threshold is 5.997 %. Below this threshold, the effect of inflation on agricultural growth is positive, while the effect above the threshold is negative and stronger.

Suggested Citation

  • Goodness C. Aye & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Threshold Effect of Inflation on Agricultural Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(2), pages 28-50, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aag:wpaper:v:25:y:2021:i:2:p:28-50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Examination," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Inflation And Economic Growth In Kenya: An Empirical Examination," Working Papers AESRI04, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    3. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Examination," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-25, September.
    4. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Examination," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-25, September.
    5. Qusai Mohammad Qasim Alabed & Fathin Faizah Said & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi & Mohammed Daher Alshammary, 2021. "Energy–Growth Nexus in the MENA Region: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Estimation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    6. Wang, Xiang & Yin, Jian & Yang, Yao & Muda, Iskandar & Abduvaxitovna, Shamansurova Zilola & AlWadi, Belal Mahmoud & Castillo-Picon, Jorge & Abdul-Samad, Zulkiflee, 2023. "Relationship between the resource curse, Forest management and sustainable development and the importance of R&D Projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture; Dynamic panel; Growth; Inflation; Threshold.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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