The Dynamics of Economic Growth and Unemployment in Major European Countries: Analysis of Okun´s Law
This paper analyzes a vector error correction model of economic growth and unemployment in four major European economies, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. We find that unemployment and economic growth are cointegrated, and driven be the same autoregressive unit root present in most endogenous growth models. In the long run, economic growth and unemployment are positively correlated, as suggested by recent economic theories on endogenous growth and unemployment. In the short-run, an increase in the equilibrium unemployment rate is related to a decline in economic growth rates. The short-run dynamics of economic growth and unemployment therefore remain consistent with Okun's law. Okun's coefficient is in line with previous estimates for all countries except for the UK, whose labor market appears much more flexible in accommodating adverse transitory shocks than continental labor markets.
Volume (Year): 3 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance,"
497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Filippo Altissimo & Giovanni L. Violante, 2001.
"The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 461-486.
- Altissimo, Filippo & Violante, Giovanni L, 2000. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Output and Unemployment in the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 2475, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jordi Gali, 1996.
"Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
5721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
- Gali, J., 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," Working Papers 96-28, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Galí, Jordi, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986.
"Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?,"
NBER Working Papers
1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1989.
"International evidence on the persistence of economic fluctuations,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 319-333, March.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1988. "International Evidence on the Persistence of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Campbell, John, 1989. "International Evidence on the Persistence of Economic Fluctuations," Scholarly Articles 3224417, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F, 1992. "Testing Integration and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 225-55, August.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1994.
"Growth and Unemployment,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 477-494.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Gil-Alana, Luis A, 2002. "Testing the order of integration of the UK Unemployment," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(1).
- Zagler, M., 2000. "Aggregate Demand, Economic Growth, and Unemployment," Economics Working Papers eco2000/17, European University Institute.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
- Gene M. Grossman (ed.), 1996. "Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 553.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997.
"The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
- Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno, . "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR apporach," Working Papers 96-19, FEDEA.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:3:y:2003:i:3_18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.