The effect of inflation on the natural rate of output: experimental evidence
We examine the inflation-output relationship in the USA for the period 1955-90. We start by replicating Smyth (1992) and subjecting his estimates to a series of diagnostic tests. The model is shown to satisfy conditions for valid inference (weak exogeneity) and policy analysis (super-exogeneity) (Engle, Hendry and Richard, 1983). These robustness checks allow us to study the out-of-sample consequences of the point estimates for various levels of inflation. One central experimental result is that for inflation rates exceeding 4% the natural rate of output is reduced to such an extent that it contributes to a reduction in the growth rate of real GNP that is below historical trend (3.1% in our sample).
Volume (Year): 29 (1997)
Issue (Month): 9 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro, 1995.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Stopping moderate inflations: the methods of Poincaré and Thatcher," Working Papers 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 1995.
"Growth and the effects of inflation,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1405-1428, November.
- William Easterly & Robert King & Ross Levine & Sergio Rebelo, 1994.
"Policy, Technology Adoption, and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ball, Laurence, 1994.
"Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price-Setting,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 282-89, March.
- Laurence Ball, 1990. "Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price Setting," NBER Working Papers 3555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1990.
"Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy,"
90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January.
- Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
- De Gregorio, Jose, 1992.
"The effects of inflation on economic growth : Lessons from Latin America,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 417-425, April.
- Jose De Gregorio, 1991. "The Effects of Inflationon Economic Growth; Lessons From Latin America," IMF Working Papers 91/95, International Monetary Fund.
- Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
- Engle, R. & Hendry, D., 1990.
"Testing Super Exogeneity And Invariance In Regression Models,"
Economics Series Working Papers
99100, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- V.V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 1995. "The growth effects of monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 18-32.
- Dennis W. Jansen, 1989. "Does inflation uncertainty affect output growth? Further evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 43-54.
- Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1982. "Why Stopping Inflation May Be Costly: Evidence from Fourteen Historical Episodes," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 11-40 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991.
"A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
609, The World Bank.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
- Peng, W., 1993. "The Effects of Inflation on Natural Output Growth in Six Pacific Basin and Latin American Developing Economies," Papers 93-02, University of Birmingham - International Financial Group.
- Pierre Fortin, 1993. "The Unbearable Lightness of Zero-Inflation Optimism," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 15, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Stanners, W, 1993. "Is Low Inflation an Important Condition for High Growth?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 79-107, March.
- Argia Sbordone & Kenneth Kuttner, 1994. "Does inflation reduce productivity?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 2-14.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:29:y:1997:i:9:p:1191-1199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.