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La Relación Inflación-Crecimiento: Un Resúmen con algunas Implicaciones para Colombia

  • Zeinab Partow
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    ¿Cuál es la relación entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico? En la tradición keynesiana, la curva de Phillips normal plantea que un alta inflación se relaciona con una reducción del desempleo y un aumento de la actividad productiva, equivaliendo ambos a mayor crecimiento económico. Tobin (1965) y Mundell (1965) también arguyen que existe una relación positiva entre la inflación y el producto. Por otra parte, los primeros modelos de expectativas racionales de Lucas (1972, 1973) y Barro (1976, 1980) y el trabajo de Sidrauski (1967) no predicen relación alguna entre el crecimiento anticipado del dinero del producto. Modelos más recientes demuestran que un alto crecimiento del dinero puede tener un efecto negativo sobre el crecimiento económico. Este trabajo está dirigido a lectores que buscan una introducción al tema de la inflación y su relación con el crecimiento económico. Por lo tanto se resume la literatura teórica y empírica sobre el tema en la sección a continuación, y se aumenta la evidencia empiríca en la sección III con los resultados de regresiones de corte trsversal para noventa y cinco países en el período 1960-1989. La cuarta sección preesenta los antecedentes macroeconómicos para Colombia con énfasis en la relación entre la inflación y el crecimiento, segida en la última sección de unas conclusiones para el país recogidas del análisis de corte transversal y de estudios recientes de series de tiempo.

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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 023.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:023
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    1. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
    2. Easterly, William, 1991. "The macroeconomics of the public sector deficit : the case of Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 626, The World Bank.
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    8. Ben S. Bernanke, 1980. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," NBER Working Papers 0502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    10. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
    11. Andrew J. Buck & Felix Fitzroy, 1988. "Inflation and Productivity Growth in the Federal Republic of Germany," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 10(3), pages 428-444, April.
    12. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Working Papers 2855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
    14. Easterly, William & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "The macroeconomics of public sector deficits : a synthesis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 775, The World Bank.
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