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Accélération monétaire et croissance endogène

  • Patrick Villieu
  • Taoufik Rajhi

[fre] Accélération monétaire et croissance endogène Cet article étudie l'impact de l'inflation sur la croissance en longue période, d'un point de vue à la fois empirique et théorique. Plus précisément, la constatation, tant sur données de panel que sur sénés temporelles pour les États-Unis, d'une liaison négative, non pas entre l'inflation ou le taux de croissance de la masse monétaire, mais entre l'accélération des prix ou de la masse monétaire et le taux de croissance de l'activité économique après la seconde guerre mondiale, conduira à s'interroger sur une possible erreur de spécification. Si l'accélération, et non le taux de crois­sance, de la masse monétaire influence négativement la croissance économique, les difficultés empiriques et théoriques à exhiber un lien significatif entre inflation et croissance ne préjugent en rien de l'influence de la politique monétaire. Deux exercices empiriques sont menés, l'un sur données de panel, l'autre sur séries chronologiques pour les États-Unis, afin de mettre en évidence que l'indicateur pertinent de la relation inflation-croissance depuis la seconde guerre mondiale n'est pas le taux de croissance mais l'accélération des prix ou de la masse monétaire. La corrélation entre l'accélération de la masse monétaire et le taux de croissance à long terme est ensuite interprétée de manière structurelle, par un modèle monétaire de croissance endogène dans lequel les autorités monétaires maintiennent constante l'accélération de la composante exogène de l'offre de monnaie. Le signe de la relation entre l'accélération de la masse monétaire et la croissance du produit dépendra alors de l'aspect complémentaire ou substituable en utilité de la monnaie et de la consommation. [eng] Endogeneous growth and monetary accumulation The long-run relation between inflation and growth is studied in an empirical and theorical model. More precisely, on US datas, a negative correlation can be showed, not between the inflation rate or the money growth rate and output, but between the rate of prices or money acceleration and the rate of growth of output. This may resuit on a specification error. If it is the rate of acceleration and not the rate of growth of money that negatively determinates the rate of economie growth, the empirical and theoritical difficulties to exhibit a significant link between inflation and growth do not say anything about the contribution of monetary policy. The long-run correlation between the rate of money acceleration and the rate of economic growth is then interpretated in a structural way, in a monetary model of endogeneous growth in which the monetary authorities keep constant the rate of acceleration of the exogeneous part of money supply. The sign of the relation between the rate of monetary acceleration and the rate of economie growth is seen to depend on the sign of the cross derivative of the utility fonction between money and consumption.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 44 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 257-286

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1993_num_44_2_409450
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1993.409450
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  13. Taoufik Rajhi, 1993. "Croissance endogène et externalités des dépenses publiques," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(2), pages 335-368.
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