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Accélération monétaire et croissance endogène

  • Patrick Villieu
  • Taoufik Rajhi

[fre] Accélération monétaire et croissance endogène Cet article étudie l'impact de l'inflation sur la croissance en longue période, d'un point de vue à la fois empirique et théorique. Plus précisément, la constatation, tant sur données de panel que sur sénés temporelles pour les États-Unis, d'une liaison négative, non pas entre l'inflation ou le taux de croissance de la masse monétaire, mais entre l'accélération des prix ou de la masse monétaire et le taux de croissance de l'activité économique après la seconde guerre mondiale, conduira à s'interroger sur une possible erreur de spécification. Si l'accélération, et non le taux de crois­sance, de la masse monétaire influence négativement la croissance économique, les difficultés empiriques et théoriques à exhiber un lien significatif entre inflation et croissance ne préjugent en rien de l'influence de la politique monétaire. Deux exercices empiriques sont menés, l'un sur données de panel, l'autre sur séries chronologiques pour les États-Unis, afin de mettre en évidence que l'indicateur pertinent de la relation inflation-croissance depuis la seconde guerre mondiale n'est pas le taux de croissance mais l'accélération des prix ou de la masse monétaire. La corrélation entre l'accélération de la masse monétaire et le taux de croissance à long terme est ensuite interprétée de manière structurelle, par un modèle monétaire de croissance endogène dans lequel les autorités monétaires maintiennent constante l'accélération de la composante exogène de l'offre de monnaie. Le signe de la relation entre l'accélération de la masse monétaire et la croissance du produit dépendra alors de l'aspect complémentaire ou substituable en utilité de la monnaie et de la consommation. [eng] Endogeneous growth and monetary accumulation The long-run relation between inflation and growth is studied in an empirical and theorical model. More precisely, on US datas, a negative correlation can be showed, not between the inflation rate or the money growth rate and output, but between the rate of prices or money acceleration and the rate of growth of output. This may resuit on a specification error. If it is the rate of acceleration and not the rate of growth of money that negatively determinates the rate of economie growth, the empirical and theoritical difficulties to exhibit a significant link between inflation and growth do not say anything about the contribution of monetary policy. The long-run correlation between the rate of money acceleration and the rate of economic growth is then interpretated in a structural way, in a monetary model of endogeneous growth in which the monetary authorities keep constant the rate of acceleration of the exogeneous part of money supply. The sign of the relation between the rate of monetary acceleration and the rate of economie growth is seen to depend on the sign of the cross derivative of the utility fonction between money and consumption.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/reco.1993.409450
Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1993_num_44_2_409450
Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 44 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 257-286

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1993_num_44_2_409450
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1993.409450
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/reco

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  1. Gylfason, T., 1991. "Endogenous Growth and Inflation," Papers 502, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
  3. Robert B. Litterman & Laurence Weiss, 1983. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 1077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Post-War U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 1932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sergio T. Rebelo, 1990. "Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 3325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502.
  7. William Poole, 1987. "Monetary Policy Lessons of recent Inflation and Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 2300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Geweke, John F, 1986. "The Superneutrality of Money in the United States: An Interpretation of the Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January.
  9. Patrick Villieu, 1992. "Inflation et accumulation du capital : Le role de la substituabilité entre consommation et encaisses réelles," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 27, pages 73-89.
  10. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  11. Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K., 1992. "Examining the long-run effect of money on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 359-369.
  12. Robert J. Barro, 1979. "A Capital Market In an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model," NBER Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Alogoskoufis, George & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1991. "Money and Growth Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 532, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Taoufik Rajhi, 1993. "Croissance endogène et externalités des dépenses publiques," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(2), pages 335-368.
  15. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
  16. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Ljungqvist, Lars, 1988. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate money-output relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 217-235, September.
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