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La Relación Inflación-Crecimiento: Un Resumen Con Algunas Implicaciones Para Colombia

  • ZeinabPartow

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    ¿Cuál es la relación entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico? En la tradición Keynisiana, la curva de Phillips normal plantea que una alta inflación se relaciona con una reducción de desempleo y aumento de la actividad productiva, equivaliendo ambos a mayor crecimiento económico. Tobin (1965) y Mundell (1965) también arguyen que existe una relación positiva entre la inflación y el producto. Por otra parte, los primeros modelos de expectativas racionales de Lucas (1972, 1973) y Barro (1976, 1980) y el trabajo de Sidrauski (1967) no predicen relación alguna el crecimiento anticipado del dinero del producto. Modelos más recientes demuestran que un alto crecimiento del dinero puede tener un efecto negativo sobre el crecimiento económico. Este trabajo está dirigido a lectores que buscan una introducción al tema de la inflación y su relación con el crecimiento económico. Por lo tanto se resume la literatura teórica y empírica sobre el tema en la sección a continuación, y se aumenta la evidencia empírica en la Sección III con los resultados de regresiones de corte transversal para noventa y cinco países en el período 1960-1989. La cuarta sección presenta los antecedentes macroeconómicos para Colombia con énfasis en la relación entre la inflación y el crecimiento, seguida en la última sección de unas conclusiones para el país recogidas del análisis de corte transversal y de estudios recientes de series de tiempo.

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    Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003079.

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    Length: 39
    Date of creation: 28 Feb 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003079
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    1. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
    2. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1993. "Looking at the facts : what we know about policy and growth from cross-country analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1115, The World Bank.
    3. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Allocation of Talent: Implications for Growth," NBER Working Papers 3530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Easterly, William, 1991. "The macroeconomics of the public sector deficit : the case of Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 626, The World Bank.
    5. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
    6. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
    7. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
    8. Andrew J. Buck & Felix Fitzroy, 1988. "Inflation and Productivity Growth in the Federal Republic of Germany," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 10(3), pages 428-444, April.
    9. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    10. Jose De Gregorio, 1991. "Economic Growth in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 91/71, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
    12. Easterly, William & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "The macroeconomics of public sector deficits : a synthesis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 775, The World Bank.
    13. repec:cai:recosp:reco_p1993_44n2_0257 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 1995. "Growth and the effects of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1405-1428, November.
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