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Inflation Targets as a Stabilisation Device

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  • Mahadeva, Lavan

    (Bank of England)

  • Gabriel Sterne

Abstract

Over 80% of countries using explicit inflation targets in 2000 were doing so either as part of a disinflation strategy, or when inflation was neither low nor stable. Our illustrative theoretical model suggests annual revisions to short-run targets are endogenous to inflation outcomes during disinflation as long as the policymaker cares about misses from both the short-run target and a long-run target. Furthermore, target revisions will are larger when the target is undershot compared to when the target is overshot. We confirm the result using cross-country panel estimates from a unique data-set of inflation target misses in 60 countries in the 1990s. During disinflation it is therefore relatively difficult to separate decisions about target-setting from implementation. Short-term targets on a disinflation path may be more akin to conditional forecasts than policy rules, but their publication may nevertheless increase transparency and hence help policymakers to achieve lower inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahadeva, Lavan & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Inflation Targets as a Stabilisation Device," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 134, Royal Economic Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:134
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    Cited by:

    1. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 99-118.
    2. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2010. "Dynamics Of Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainty In The Uk: An Empirical Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 511-537, December.
    3. Rodrigo Caputo, 2004. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Monetary Policy Objectives in Open Economies: The Experience of Chile," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 298, Econometric Society.
    4. Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Inflation Targets in a Global Context," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 2, pages 023-078 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Rodrigo Caputo, 2009. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy. Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Desviations?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 24(1), pages 55-99, Junio.
    6. Felipe Morandé & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2000. "Chile's Peso: Better than (Just) Living with the Dollar?," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 37(110), pages 177-226.
    7. Felipe Morandé, 2002. "A Decade of Inflation Targeting in Chile: Developments, Lessons, and Challenges," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 14, pages 583-626 Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    9. J. Benson Durham, 2001. "Sacrifice ratios and monetary policy credibility: do smaller budget deficits, inflation-indexed debt, and inflation targets lower disinflation costs?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
    11. Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2012. "Transparency: can central banks commit to truthful communication?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009614, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    12. Lavan Mahadeva and Paul Robinson, 2004. "Unit Root Testing in a Central Bank," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 22.
    13. Lucía Cuadro Sáez & Sonsoles Gallego Herrero & Alicia García Herrero, 2003. "Why Do Countries Develop More Financially Than Others? The Role Of The Central Bank And Banking Supervision," Finance 0304006, EconWPA.

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