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Asset Allocation and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Eurozone

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  • Harald Hau
  • Sandy Lai

Abstract

The eurozone has a single short-term nominal interest rate, but monetary policy conditions measured by real short-term interest rates varied substantially across countries in the period 2003-2010. We use this cross-country variation in the (local) tightness of monetary policy to examine its influence on equity and money market flows. In line with a powerful risk-shifting channel, we find that fund investors in countries with decreased real interest rates shift their portfolio investment out of the money market and into the riskier equity market - causing significant equity price inflation in countries where investment home bias is the strongest.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Hau & Sandy Lai, 2014. "Asset Allocation and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Eurozone," CESifo Working Paper Series 5005, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5005
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kim, Hugh Hoikwang, 2020. "Information spillover of bailouts," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    3. Gilbert COLLETAZ & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Alexandra POPESCU, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Long-Run Risk-Taking," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2409, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    4. Fong, Tom Pak Wing & Sze, Angela Kin Wan & Ho, Edmund Ho Cheung, 2018. "Determinants of equity mutual fund flows – Evidence from the fund flow dynamics between Hong Kong and global markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 231-247.
    5. Bubeck, Johannes & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Manganelli, Simone, 2018. "The portfolio of euro area fund investors and ECB monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 103-126.
    6. Arina Wischnewsky & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2018. "Shadow Banks and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 7118, CESifo.
    7. Ayelen Banegas & Gabriel Montes-Rojas & Lucas Siga, 2016. "Mutual Fund Flows, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-071, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Colletaz, Gilbert & Levieuge, Grégory & Popescu, Alexandra, 2018. "Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 165-184.
    9. Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Jeon, Bang Nam & Wang, Rui, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 116-140.
    10. Dufour, Alfonso & Stancu, Andrei & Varotto, Simone, 2017. "The equity-like behaviour of sovereign bonds," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 25-46.
    11. John Ammer & Alexandra Tabova & Caleb Wroblewski, 2018. "Searching for yield abroad: risk-taking through foreign investment in U.S. bonds," BIS Working Papers 687, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Ammer, John & Claessens, Stijn & Tabova, Alexandra & Wroblewski, Caleb, 2019. "Home country interest rates and international investment in U.S. bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 212-227.
    13. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    14. Kaufmann, Christoph, 2020. "Investment funds, monetary policy, and the global financial cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224573, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Jannic Cutura & Gianpaolo Parise & Andreas Schrimpf, 2020. "Debt De-risking," BIS Working Papers 868, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    17. Lin, Shu & Xiao, Jinchuan & Ye, Haichun, 2020. "Disguised carry trade and the transmission of global liquidity shocks: Evidence from China’s goods trade data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    18. Giovanna Bua & Peter G. Dunne, 2019. "The Portfolio Rebalancing Effects of the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 1-46, December.
    19. Filippo Gori, 2016. "Disentangling the Monetary Policy Stance," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 27, Bank of Lithuania.
    20. Martijn Boermans & Robert Vermeulen, 2018. "Quantitative easing and preferred habitat investors in the euro area bond market," DNB Working Papers 586, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    21. Kent Daniel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Kairong Xiao, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Reaching for Income," NBER Working Papers 25344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; asset price inflation; risk seeking; Taylor rule residuals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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