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An Empirical Analysis of the Risk Taking Channel of Monetary Policy in Turkey

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  • Ekin Ayse Ozsuca

    (Department of Economics, METU)

  • Elif Akbostanci

    (Department of Economics, METU)

Abstract

The mechanism by which monetary policy affects financial institutions’ risk perception and/or tolerance has been called the ‘risk-taking channel’ of monetary policy. It has been recently argued that periods of low interest rates due to expansionary monetary policy, might induce an increase in bank risk-appetite and risk-taking behavior. This paper investigates the bank specific characteristics of risk-taking behavior of the Turkish banking sector as well as the existence of risk taking channel of monetary policy in Turkey. Using bank level quarterly data over the period 2002-2012 a dynamic panel model is estimated. Our sample accounts for 53 banks that have been active in Turkey during the period. To deal with the potential endogeneity between risk and bank specific characteristics, which are explanatory variables in our model, the GMM estimator proposed by Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998) is used. Four alternative risk measures are used in the analysis; three accounting-based risk indicators and a market-based indicator- Expected Default Frequency. We find evidence that low levels of interest rates have a positive impact on banks’ risk-taking behavior for all the risk measures. Specifically, low short term interest rates reduce the risk of outstanding loans; however short term interest rates below a theoretical benchmark increase risk-taking of banks. This result holds for macroeconomic controls as well. Furthermore, in terms of bank specific characteristics, our analysis suggests that large, liquid and well-capitalized banks are less prone to risk-taking.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekin Ayse Ozsuca & Elif Akbostanci, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of the Risk Taking Channel of Monetary Policy in Turkey," ERC Working Papers 1208, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:met:wpaper:1208
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    2. Franz Alonso Hamann Salcedo & Rafael Hernández & Luisa Fernanda Silva Escobar & Fernando Tenjo Galarza, 2013. "Credit Pro-cyclicality and Bank Balance Sheet in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010695, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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    4. Franz Hamann & Rafael Hernández & Luisa Silva & Fernando Tenjo G., 2014. "Leverage Pro-cyclicality and Bank Balance Sheet in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 32(73), pages 50-76, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Transmission mechanisms; Risk-taking channel; Turkey; Panel Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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