Assessing the Rationality of Survey Expectations: The Probability Approach
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2008-5-613
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Dasgupta, Susmita & Lahiri, Kajal, 1992. "A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 391-400, October.
- Batchelor, R. A., 1981. "Aggregate expectations under the stable laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 199-210, June.
- Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2009.
"On the Sources of the Great Moderation,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
- Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2006. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Economics Working Papers 1041, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2007.
- Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 14171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- GalÃ, Jordi & Gambetti, Luca, 2008. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
- Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2006.
"The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations,"
Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 175-195, April.
- Heinemann, Friedrich & Ullrich, Katrin, 2004. "The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-01, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Breitung, Jörg, 1988. "Estimating Binary Probit Models under First Order Serial Correlation," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-124, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
- Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-138, May.
- Fishe, Raymond P. H. & Lahiri, Kajal, 1981. "On the estimation of inflationary expectations from qualitative responses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 89-102, May.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Piotr Białowolski & Tomasz Kuszewski & Bartosz Witkowski, 2010. "Business Survey Data in Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators with Combined Forecasts," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 4(4), December.
- Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2013.
"Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 142-154.
- Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2011. "Quantifying survey expectations: What's wrong with the probability approach?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-485, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "A new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2685-2706, November.
- Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2013.
"Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 142-154.
- Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2011. "Quantifying survey expectations: What's wrong with the probability approach?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-485, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Olivier Biau & Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Nicolas Ferrari, 2006. "Réponses individuelles aux enquêtes de conjoncture et prévision de la production manufacturière," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 395(1), pages 91-116.
- Das, Abhiman & Lahiri, Kajal & Zhao, Yongchen, 2019.
"Inflation expectations in India: Learning from household tendency surveys,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 980-993.
- Abhiman Das & Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2018. "Inflation Expectations in India: Learning from Household Tendency Surveys," Working Papers 2018-03, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2018.
- Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Quantifying survey expectations: A critical review and generalization of the Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-62.
- Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
- Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Quantifying Heterogeneous Survey Expectations: The Carlson-Parkin Method Revisited," Discussion Papers 13-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006.
"Survey Expectations,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 715-776,
Elsevier.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," IEPR Working Papers 05.30, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
- Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 1599, CESifo.
- , & Stein, Tobias, 2021.
"Equity premium predictability over the business cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mönch, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," Discussion Papers 25/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Nolte, Ingmar & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 2007. "Using forecasts of forecasters to forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 15-28.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Hutson, Mark & Joutz, Fred & Stekler, Herman, 2014. "Interpreting and evaluating CESIfo's World Economic Survey directional forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 6-11.
- Chen, Liang & Dolado, Juan J. & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2014.
"Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 30-48.
- Chen, Liang & Dolado, Juan Jose & Gonzalo, Jesus, 2011. "Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models," MPRA Paper 31344, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Liang Chen & Juan Dolado & Jesus Gonzalo, 2013. "Detecting Big Structural Breaks in Large Factor Models," Economics Series Working Papers 677, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Chen, Liang & Dolado, Juan José & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2011. "Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1141, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EconomÃa.
- Pincheira-Brown, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2019.
"Forecasting inflation in Latin America with core measures,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1060-1071.
- Pincheira, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2017. "Forecasting Inflation in Latin America with Core Measures," MPRA Paper 80496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006.
"The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
- Pancrazi, Roberto, 2015. "The heterogeneous Great Moderation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 207-228.
- Vermeulen, Philip, 2014. "An evaluation of business survey indices for short-term forecasting: Balance method versus Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 882-897.
More about this item
Keywords
Rational expectations; survey data; probability model;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:228:y:2008:i:5-6:p:630-643. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.