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Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models

  • Gonzalo, Jesús
  • Dolado, Juan José
  • Chen, Liang

Time invariance of factor loadings is a standard assumption in the analysis of large factor models. Yet, this assumption may be restrictive unless parameter shifts are mild (i.e., local to zero). In this paper we develop a new testing procedure to detect big breaks in these loadings at either known or unknown dates. It relies upon testing for parameter breaks in a regression of the first of the r¯ factors estimated by PCA on the remaining r¯ − 1 factors, where r¯ is chosen according to Bai and Ng’s (2002) information criteria. The test fares well in terms of power relative to other recently proposed tests on this issue, and can be easily implemented to avoid forecasting failures in standard factor-augmented (FAR, FAVAR) models where the number of factors is a priori imposed on the basis of theoretical considerations.

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Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía in its series UC3M Working papers. Economics with number we1141.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we1141
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.eco.uc3m.es/

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