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Regional business cycle phases in Japan

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  • Howard J. Wall

Abstract

This paper uses a Markov-switching model with structural breaks to characterize and compare regional business cycles in Japan for 1976-2005. An early 1990s structural break meant a reduction in national and regional growth rates in expansion and recession, usually resulting in an increase in the spread between the two phases. Although recessions tended to be experienced across a majority of regions throughout the sample period, the occurrence and lengths of recessions at the regional level have increased over time.

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  • Howard J. Wall, 2006. "Regional business cycle phases in Japan," Working Papers 2006-053, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Owyang & Howard Wall, 2009. "Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1191-1194.
    2. Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2003. "Measuring Business Cycle Turning Points in Japan with a Dynamic Markov Switching Factor Model," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(1), pages 35-68, February.
    3. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, June.
    4. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
    5. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    6. Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-996, November.
    7. Toshiaki Watanabe & Hirokuni Uchiyama, 2005. "Structural Change in Japanese Business Fluctuations and Nikkei 225 Stock Index Futures Transactions," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 1(1), pages 19-32, March.
    8. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    9. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
    10. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Maria Teresa Punzi, 2013. "Housing Market and Current Account Imbalances in the International Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 601-613, September.
    3. Wall, Howard, 2022. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," MPRA Paper 112005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Motonari Hayashida & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2009. "Regional Business Cycles in Japan," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 32(2), pages 119-147, April.
    5. Liu, Dayu & Wang, Qiaoru & Song, Yang, 2020. "China’s business cycles at the provincial level: National synchronization, interregional coordination and provincial idiosyncrasy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 629-650.
    6. Gatfaoui, Jamel & Girardin, Eric, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 294-306.
    7. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, July.
    8. Funashima, Yoshito & Horiba, Isao & Miyahara, Shoichi, 2015. "Local Government Investments and Ineffectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus during Japan's Lost Decades," MPRA Paper 61333, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Business cycles; Economic conditions - Japan;

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