Measuring Business Cycle Turning Points in Japan with a Dynamic Markov Switching Factor Model
In the dynamic factor model, a single unobserved factor common to some macroeconomic variables is defined as a composite index to measure business cycles. This model has recently been developed by combining with the regime switching model so that the mean growth of the index may shift depending on whether the economy is in a boom regime or in a recession regime. An advantage of this dynamic Markov switching factor model is that estimating the model by a Bayesian method produces the posterior probabilities that the economy is in the recession regime, which can be used to date the business cycle turning points. This article estimates the dynamic Markov switching factor model using some macroeconomic variables in Japan. The model comparison using the Bayes factor does not provide strong evidence that the mean growth of the index shifts, but the dynamic Markov switching factor model is found to produce the estimates of turning points close to the reference dates of the Economic and Social Research Institute in the Cabinet Office, unless only weakly correlated variables are used.
Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:21:y:2003:i:1:p:35-68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.