An Unobserved Components Common Cycle For Australia? Implications For A Common Currency
An important requirement, prior to countries’ adopting a common currency or maintaining an independent monetary policy, is establishing the extent to which they share a common economic cycle and how susceptible they are to region-specific shocks. For example, Kouparitsas (2001) has examined whether 8 US BEA regions are largely subject to common sources of disturbance, and assesses whether their regional cycles are consistent with a common currency area for the US. Norman and Walker (2007) conclude for 6 Australian States that the major source of the State fluctuations is shocks which are common to all States. But their variance analysis also shows that each overall State cycle is driven partly by fluctuations specific to that State, in particular for Western Australia. Findings such as these also have important implications for the relative strengths of influence of fiscal and regional policies, and of external shocks. Using similar unobserved components methodology (e.g. Watson and Engle (1983), Kouparitsas (2001, 2002), Norman and Walker (2007), and Hall and McDermott (2008)), we establish an Australasian common cycle, and assess the extent to which the region-specific cycles of 6 Australian States and NZ are additionally important. Our results suggest that: (1) structural breaks play an important role; (2) New Zealand’s region-specific growth cycle has exhibited distinctively different features, relative to the common cycle; and (3) for every Australasian region, the regionspecific cycle variance dominates that of the common cycle. Our findings on the distinctiveness of New Zealand’s output and employment cycles are consistent with New Zealand retaining the flexibility of a separate currency and monetary policy.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Crawford Building, Lennox Crossing, Building #132, Canberra ACT 2601|
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew S., 2004. "Estimating output gaps in Asia: A cross-country study," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-136, March.
- Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
- Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Regional and industry cycles in Australasia: Implications for a common currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, June.
- Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Regional and Industry Cycles in Australasia: Implications for a Common Currency," Working Papers 05_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
- Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Regional and Industry Cycles in Australasia: Implications for a Common Currency," Macroeconomics 0509020, EconWPA.
- Paul de Grauwe & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Endogeneities of Optimum Currency Areas: What brings Countries Sharing a Single Currency Closer together?," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 29, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
- Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
- Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renée, 2009. "The identification of fiscal and monetary policy in a structural VAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1147-1160, November.
- Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2007. "The Identification Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Structural Var," CAMA Working Papers 2007-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2001. "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 446-456, August.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 2000. "Regional income fluctuations: common trends and common cycles," Working Papers 00-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2005. "Regional cyclical asymmetries in an optimal currency area: an analysis using US state data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 373-397, July.
- Nils Björksten & Özer Karagedikli & Christopher Plantier & Arthur Grimes, 2004. "What Does the Taylor Rule Say About a New Zealand-Australia Currency Union?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages 34-42, 09.
- Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Working Papers 05_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:47:n:2:a:1 is not listed on IDEAS
- Arthur Grimes, 2006. "Intra & inter-regional industry shocks: A new metric with application to Australasian currency union," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 23-44.
- Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2007. "Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 459-502, 03.
- Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2005. "Estimating and testing structural changes in multivariate regressions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Drew, Aaron & Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John & Clair, Robert St., 2004. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 949-964, December.
- Aaron Drew & Viv Hall & John McDermott & Robert St. Clair, 2001. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
- Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Emma Xiaoqin Fan & Jesus Felipe, 2005. "The diverging patterns of profitability, investment and growth of China and India, 1980-2003," CAMA Working Papers 2005-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Arthur Grimes, 2007. "Trans-Tasman shocks: A mediating role for the NZDAUD," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 237-250.
- Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2001. "Is the United States an optimum currency area? an empirical analysis of regional business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-01-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John, 2009. "The New Zealand Business Cycle," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 1050-1069, August.
- David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2007. "Co-Movement Of Australian State Business Cycles ," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 360-374, December.
- Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
- Thomas Walker & David Norman, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 334, Econometric Society.
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-395, October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)