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WOULD ADOPTING THE US DOLLAR HAVE LED TO IMPROVED INFLATION, OUTPUT AND TRADE BALANCES FOR NEW ZEALAND IN THE 1990s?

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  • Viv Hall
  • Angela Huang

Abstract

Deterministic simulations with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s core FPS model show how New Zealand’s broad macroeconomic environment might have evolved over the 1990s, if a US nominal yield curve and US TWI exchange rate movements under a common currency arrangement had been experienced.Relatively looser monetary conditions would have prevailed, and led to modest short-run output gains, greater excess demand pressures, noticeably higher CPI inflation rates over the whole of the 1990s, and less favourable trade balance outcomes, especially for the late 1990s.These macroeconomic outcomes are overall less favourable than those obtained from simulating the equivalent Australian monetary conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Viv Hall & Angela Huang, 2004. "WOULD ADOPTING THE US DOLLAR HAVE LED TO IMPROVED INFLATION, OUTPUT AND TRADE BALANCES FOR NEW ZEALAND IN THE 1990s?," Macroeconomics 0401001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0401001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Coleman, 1999. "Economic Integration and Monetary Union," Treasury Working Paper Series 99/06, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Viv Hall & Kunhong Kim & Robert Buckle, 1998. "Pacific rim business cycle analysis: Synchronisation and volatility," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 129-159.
    3. Hunt, Benjamin & Rose, David & Scott, Alasdair, 2000. "The core model of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-274, April.
    4. Nils Bjorksten, 2001. "The current state of New Zealand monetary union research," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, December.
    5. Sharon McCaw & C John McDermott, 2000. "How New Zealand adjusts to macroeconomic shocks: implications for joining a currency area," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, March.
    6. Andrew Coleman, 2001. "Three Perspectives on an Australasian Monetary Union," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: David Gruen & John Simon (ed.), Future Directions for Monetary Policies in East Asia Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. David Hargreaves & C John McDermott, 1999. "Issues relating to optimal currency areas: theory and implications for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September.
    8. Drew, Aaron & Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John & Clair, Robert St., 2004. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 949-964, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Regional and industry cycles in Australasia: Implications for a common currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, June.
    2. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Industry Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Macroeconomics 0509019, EconWPA.
    3. Drew, Aaron & Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John & Clair, Robert St., 2004. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 949-964, December.
    4. Michelle Poland & David C Maré, 2005. "Defining Geographic Communities," Urban/Regional 0509016, EconWPA.
    5. Emma Xiaoqin Fan & Jesus Felipe, 2005. "The diverging patterns of profitability, investment and growth of China and India, 1980-2003," CAMA Working Papers 2005-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. David C Maré, 2005. "Indirect Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," HEW 0509004, EconWPA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Common currency; monetary policy; deterministic simulation; New Zealand; Australia; United States.;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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